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Palma Real von Kuba

Hurrikan (ciclon)
2013 Namen: Chantal

 

WARNUNGEN


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Stand: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 17:45:47 GMT
Quelle: NHC Atlantic
Mehr Info und aktuelle Karten



Tropical Storm GASTON 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image 
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Aug 2016 14:56:25 GMT
  
Tropical Storm GASTON 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities  
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Aug 2016 15:05:37 GMT


 
000 
ABNT20 KNHC 241532 
TWOAT  
 
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1135 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 
 
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 
 
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update discussion on 
tropical wave in the Caribbean. 
 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Gaston, located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde 
Islands. 
 
Updated:  An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft currently 
investigating the broad low pressure area and tropical wave near 
the northern Leeward Islands has found winds to tropical storm force 
in a few squalls near the northernmost Leeward Islands.  Squalls to 
tropical storm force can be expected over the extreme northern 
Leeward Islands and portions of the northern U.S. and British Virgin 
Islands this afternoon. The reconnaissance aircraft mission is 
ongoing to determine whether or not a tropical cyclone has formed. 
 
Although environmental conditions are currently only marginally 
conducive for additional development, this system could become a 
tropical depression or tropical storm at any time during the next 
few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph across 
the northern Leeward Islands, near or over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, 
and the Bahamas.  Strong winds, heavy rains, and possible flash 
floods and mudslides are expected to occur over portions of the 
Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern and 
central Bahamas.  Please consult products issued by your local 
meteorological offices for further details. Interests in the 
northwestern Bahamas and Florida should also monitor the progress 
of this system. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent 
 
$$ 
Forecaster Brown 
 

  ...GASTON HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR IN A DAY OR TWO...
 As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 24
 the center of GASTON was located near 16.1, -39.4
 with movement NW at 16 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
 
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED AUG 24 2016  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 241455
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER   8...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
1100 AM AST WED AUG 24 2016

CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY

...GASTON HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR IN A DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 39.4W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 39.4 West. Gaston is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Although Gaston could become a hurricane today, some
weakening is forecast on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 24 2016  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 241453
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
1500 UTC WED AUG 24 2016

CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  39.4W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  39.4W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  38.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.5N  41.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.6N  43.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.9N  45.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 24.3N  47.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 27.8N  53.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 30.5N  55.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 32.2N  56.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N  39.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



Issued at 1100 AM AST WED AUG 24 2016  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 241457
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   8...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
1100 AM AST WED AUG 24 2016

Corrected for initial intensity

Gaston's overall cloud pattern has not changed much in organization
since the last advisory.  The low-level center is located underneath
a small central dense overcast (CDO), with hints of a prototype eye
within the convective mass.  A solid band, attached to the CDO,
wraps around the eastern half of the circulation.  A 1234 UTC ASCAT
pass supports keeping the initial wind estimate at 60 kt.

Gaston could still reach hurricane strength today.  However, the
shear associated with a potent mid- to upper-level trough along 52W
is forecast to greatly increase over Gaston and peak in 36 to 48
hours.  Even though the cyclone will gradually be moving over warmer
waters at that time, the shear should be enough to arrest its
development or perhaps even result in weakening.  By 72 hours,
Gaston's involvement with the trough should lessen and the shear
should decrease.  Much lower westerly shear is forecast toward the
end of the forecast period, which should give Gaston an opportunity
to re-strengthen, and perhaps significantly, as it moves over waters
of around 29 deg C.  The new NHC intensity forecast is reduced some
compared to the previous one through 48 hours, but shows slightly
greater intensification by 120 hours.  The official forecast is in
generally in good agreement with the multi-model consensus.

The latest fixes indicate that Gaston's heading has a much greater
northerly component, and the long-term initial motion estimate is
305/14.  Gaston is expected to move northwestward between a
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic and the aforementioned
trough to the west during the next 3 days.  After 72 hours, Gaston
should gradually turn north-northwestward and northward with a
considerable decrease in forward speed, when it encounters a more
substantial break in the Atlantic subtropical ridge along 60W.  The
ECMWF shows less ridging and makes Gaston vulnerable to the mid-
latitude westerlies earlier, with the model showing recurvature
before 120 hours.  The bulk of the guidance, however, lies farther
west, with these models showing more ridging north of Gaston through
day 5.  The new track forecast is a little right of the previous
one through 72 hours in response to the cyclone's abrupt change in
heading since the last advisory and is close to a blend of the
ECMWF and GFS solutions.  The track beyond 72 hours was adjusted
westward and remains close to a ECMWF/GFS model blend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 16.1N  39.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 17.5N  41.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 19.6N  43.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 21.9N  45.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 24.3N  47.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 27.8N  53.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 30.5N  55.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 32.2N  56.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 24 2016  

000
FONT12 KNHC 241456
PWSAT2

TROPICAL STORM GASTON
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  8...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
1500 UTC WED AUG 24 2016

CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



regen hurrikan
So kann es aussehen:
die ersten Tropfen sind schon da

Hurrikane sind tropische Wirbelstürme. Gefahren entstehen durch Windgeschwindigkeiten, Wellen und schwere Niederschläge. In Kuba wird Hurrican 'ciclon' genannt. Saizon ist Mai bis November. Kuba ist für Hurrikane besser als die USA oder andere Länder der Karibik vorbereitet, obwohl erhebliche Sachschäden werden der Insel nicht erspart.




Sind Sie da? Gerade etwas passiert?

Berichten Sie es auf HolaCuba:



foto hurrikan kuba

Rechts: typisches Bild eines Hurrikanes

Danke für das Foto, Andrew
(war unser Gast in Varadero)




Wir werden oft gefragt: Und wie verhält man sich als Tourist, wenn man dort von einem Hurrikan überrascht wird?

Es gelten zwei Regeln:
1. Zu Hause bleiben.
2. Den Auforderungen der Zivilschutzes folgen.

Alle unsere Casas sind solide gebaut, keine ist aus Holz.




Hurrikanschäden

hurrikan schäden
Nach dem ciclon:
Baumaterialien werden gefragt

Offiziel als Hurrikan zählt das Unwetter ab 118 Km/Stunde. Aber schon ab 50 Km hört der Spass auf

Aus der Schweiz könen Sie Ihre Hilfe für die Opfer direkt an Cuba-Si Schweiz leisten.

Mehr über Hurrikan in Wikipedia

(Diese Seite wird im web als 'hurrican cuba' aber auch als 'hurrikan kuba' gesucht und gefunden.)


Wichtigere Tropische Wirbelstürme / Hurrikan-Namen im 2012: Isaac

Im 2011: Bret Irene Katia Ophelia

Im 2010: Agatha Earl

Im 2009: Ana, Hurrikan Bill, Claudette, Danny, Fred, Ida







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