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WARNUNGEN


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Stand: Sun, 29 May 2016 13:04:42 GMT
Quelle: NHC Atlantic
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Tropical Depression BONNIE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image 
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 May 2016 11:54:39 GMT
  
Tropical Depression BONNIE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities  
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 May 2016 09:03:33 GMT

  ...CENTER OF BONNIE MOVES ONSHORE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
 As of 8:45 AM EDT Sun May 29
 the center of BONNIE was located near 32.8, -79.8
 with movement N at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
 
Issued at 800 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 291154
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
800 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...BONNIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST...
...HEAVY RAINS STILL AFFECTING MUCH OF EASTERN GEORGIA
AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 79.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For information specific to your area, including possible inland
watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Bonnie
was located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 79.6 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the
center of Bonnie is expected to move onshore near the south-central
coast of South Carolina this morning.  A slow northeastward motion
near the coast of northeastern South Carolina is expected by tonight
and on Monday.

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next 24 hours, followed by slow weakening on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Bonnie is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches from
central and eastern South Carolina to the Georgia border, and 1 to
3 inches farther north across southeastern North Carolina.  Heavy
rain is expected to develop well north of Bonnie's main circulation
into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and the Northeast with total
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches through Monday and isolated maximum
amounts of 4 inches.

WIND: Wind gusts to near tropical-storm force are possible along
the south-central coast of South Carolina today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground
level is possible along portions of the south-central coast of South
Carolina today.

SURF: Bonnie is expected to produce dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along portions of the southeastern United States coast
through the weekend. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Kimberlain

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN MAY 29 2016  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 290846
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
0900 UTC SUN MAY 29 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF EDISTO BEACH TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N  79.4W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N  79.4W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N  79.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 32.6N  79.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 33.3N  79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 33.5N  78.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.9N  78.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.5N  76.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 35.2N  75.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 35.8N  74.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.1N  79.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Issued at 500 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 290853
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Shortly after Bonnie reached its peak intensity of 40 kt, water
vapor imagery and satellite-derived winds indicate that a surge of
40-60 kt upper-level winds passed over the center of the cyclone,
which stripped away all of the associated deep convection. In
addition, an intrusion of dry air has inhibited the redevelopment
of significant deep convection near the center. Based on the erosion
of the convective pattern, the intensity has been lowered to 35 kt
for this advisory.

Radar and satellite imagery suggest that Bonnie is now moving due
north or 360/07 kt. Bonnie has become a more shallow tropical
cyclone due to the loss of all deep convection, and the system is
expected to be steered generally northward around the western
periphery of a low-level ridge for the next 24 hours or so. This
should bring the center of Bonnie near or just inland of the South
Carolina coast this afternoon or tonight. After that, Bonnie is
expected to move slowly northeastward around the northern side of
the Bermuda-Azores High and emerge out over the Atlantic by 36 to
48 hours, and continue moving northeastward or east-northeastward
through the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and closely
follows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model tracks.

Continued strong southerly vertical wind shear, along with dry air
in the mid- and upper-levels and proximity to land, should prevent
any significant restrengthening from occurring. However, there
could be intermittent bursts of convection near the center of
Bonnie, keeping the cyclone as a tropical storm until landfall
occurs later today. By 48 hours and beyond, environmental
conditions worsen, and Bonnie is expected to degenerate into a
remnant low pressure system by 72 hours, if not sooner.

The primary impact from Bonnie will be locally heavy rainfall, which
is already occurring over much of South Carolina, eastern Georgia,
and portions of southeastern North Carolina. These rains will
gradually spread northeastward along the mid-Atlantic region over
the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 32.1N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 32.6N  79.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 33.3N  79.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  30/1800Z 33.5N  78.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  31/0600Z 33.9N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 34.5N  76.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0600Z 35.2N  75.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0600Z 35.8N  74.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN MAY 29 2016                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 290847
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016               
0900 UTC SUN MAY 29 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   2(12)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   1(11)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)   2(13)
ROCKY MT NC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   3(12)   2(14)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   5(13)   3(16)   1(17)   1(18)
FAYETTEVILLE   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)   2(16)   1(17)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   6(13)   2(15)   2(17)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)   2(16)   1(17)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)   6(19)   1(20)   1(21)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   7(17)   4(21)   1(22)   1(23)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   5( 5)  10(15)   6(21)   3(24)   1(25)   1(26)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  1  20(21)   7(28)   2(30)   2(32)   X(32)   1(33)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   8( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   2(14)   X(14)   1(15)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  1  14(15)  13(28)   4(32)   3(35)   X(35)   1(36)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  4  19(23)  11(34)   4(38)   1(39)   X(39)   1(40)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34 17  22(39)   6(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)   1(47)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34 30  13(43)   2(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)   1(47)
CHARLESTON SC  50  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  7   6(13)   2(15)   X(15)   1(16)   1(17)   X(17)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
Issued at 845 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016  

000
WTNT62 KNHC 291241
TCUAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
845 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...CENTER OF BONNIE MOVES ONSHORE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA...

The center of Tropical Depression Bonnie made landfall just east of
Charleston, South Carolina, on the Isle of Palms around 8:30 AM
EDT...1230 UTC.

SUMMARY OF 830 AM EDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 79.8W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Brown


Issued at  839 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016
Issued at  904 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016


regen hurrikan
So kann es aussehen:
die ersten Tropfen sind schon da

Hurrikane sind tropische Wirbelstürme. Gefahren entstehen durch Windgeschwindigkeiten, Wellen und schwere Niederschläge. In Kuba wird Hurrican 'ciclon' genannt. Saizon ist Mai bis November. Kuba ist für Hurrikane besser als die USA oder andere Länder der Karibik vorbereitet, obwohl erhebliche Sachschäden werden der Insel nicht erspart.




Sind Sie da? Gerade etwas passiert?

Berichten Sie es auf HolaCuba:



foto hurrikan kuba

Rechts: typisches Bild eines Hurrikanes

Danke für das Foto, Andrew
(war unser Gast in Varadero)




Wir werden oft gefragt: Und wie verhält man sich als Tourist, wenn man dort von einem Hurrikan überrascht wird?

Es gelten zwei Regeln:
1. Zu Hause bleiben.
2. Den Auforderungen der Zivilschutzes folgen.

Alle unsere Casas sind solide gebaut, keine ist aus Holz.




Hurrikanschäden

hurrikan schäden
Nach dem ciclon:
Baumaterialien werden gefragt

Offiziel als Hurrikan zählt das Unwetter ab 118 Km/Stunde. Aber schon ab 50 Km hört der Spass auf

Aus der Schweiz könen Sie Ihre Hilfe für die Opfer direkt an Cuba-Si Schweiz leisten.

Fotos aus Baracoa (2008-09-11)

Fotos aus Guantanamo (2008-09-09)

Mehr über Hurrikan in Wikipedia

(Diese Seite wird im web als 'hurrican cuba' aber auch als 'hurrikan kuba' gesucht und gefunden.)


Wichtigere Tropische Wirbelstürme / Hurrikan-Namen im 2012: Isaac

Im 2011: Bret Irene Katia Ophelia

Im 2010: Agatha Earl

Im 2009: Ana, Hurrikan Bill, Claudette, Danny, Fred, Ida







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