Achtung: Externe Daten in Englisch. HolaCuba übernimmt keine Haftung.
Stand:
Sat, 03 Jun 2023 11:31:40 GMT Quelle: NHC Atlantic Mehr Info und aktuelle Karten
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Jun 2023 08:41:49 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Jun 2023 09:22:17 GMT
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031130
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Arlene, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
...ARLENE LIKELY TO WEAKEN TODAY...
As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 3
the center of Arlene was located near 24.5, -85.5
with movement SSE at 9 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 998 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023
000
WTNT32 KNHC 030836
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023
...ARLENE LIKELY TO WEAKEN TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 85.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 85.5 West. Arlene is
moving toward the south-southeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a
gradual turn to the southeast is expected during the next day or
so.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected, and Arlene is forecast to become a
tropical depression today, and degenerate into a remnant low by
late tonight. Arlene is expected to dissipate on Sunday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with localized higher
amounts up to 5 inches are possible through tonight across portions
of the southern Florida Peninsula. The heavy rainfall could lead to
isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 03 2023
000
WTNT22 KNHC 030835
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022023
0900 UTC SAT JUN 03 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.5W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 150 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.5W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 85.6W
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.7N 84.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.3N 82.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 85.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023
000
WTNT42 KNHC 030840
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023
Arlene appears to be commencing a weakening trend. The strong
southwesterly shear that had been affecting the system has shifted
to a westerly or west-northwesterly direction, likely because the
upper-level trough axis has moved to the east of the tropical
cyclone. This is causing an even more hostile upper-level
environment for Arlene on the back side of the upper trough,
since the deep convection is weakening while being stripped
farther to the east of the center. The current intensity
estimate is kept at 35 kt for this advisory, in agreement with
a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and an objective estimate
from UW-CIMSS. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the system later this morning.
The cyclone is moving a little faster toward the south-southeast,
or at about 150/8 kt. Today and tonight, Arlene is expected to turn
toward the southeast within the flow on the western and southern
side of a mid-level trough near the Florida Peninsula. The official
track forecast is close to both the simple and corrected dynamical
consensus model solutions.
Based on the current trends in the cloud pattern and the
unfavorable atmospheric environment of strong shear and relatively
dry low- to mid-tropospheric air, weakening is likely. Arlene is
forecast to become a depression later today, degenerate into a
remnant low late tonight or early Sunday, and dissipate thereafter.
This is similar to the previous official forecast and in good
agreement with the numerical guidance.
Although Arlene is forecast to weaken well offshore, there is still
the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of the southern
Florida peninsula through today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 24.5N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 23.7N 84.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 23.3N 82.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 03 2023
037
FONT12 KNHC 030837
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022023
0900 UTC SAT JUN 03 2023
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HAVANA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
So kann es aussehen: die ersten Tropfen sind schon da
Hurrikane sind tropische Wirbelstürme.
Gefahren entstehen durch Windgeschwindigkeiten, Wellen und
schwere Niederschläge. In Kuba wird Hurrican 'ciclon' genannt.
Saizon ist Mai bis November. Kuba ist für Hurrikane besser als die USA oder
andere Länder der Karibik vorbereitet, obwohl erhebliche
Sachschäden werden der Insel nicht erspart.
Sind Sie da? Gerade etwas passiert?
Berichten Sie es auf HolaCuba:
Rechts: typisches Bild eines Hurrikanes
Danke für das Foto, Andrew (war unser Gast in
Varadero)
Wir werden oft gefragt: Und wie verhält man sich als Tourist,
wenn man dort von einem Hurrikan überrascht wird?
Es gelten zwei Regeln:
1. Zu Hause bleiben.
2. Den Auforderungen der Zivilschutzes folgen.
Alle unsere Casas sind solide gebaut, keine ist aus Holz.
Hurrikanschäden
Nach dem ciclon: Baumaterialien werden gefragt
Offiziel als Hurrikan zählt das Unwetter ab 118 Km/Stunde. Aber schon ab 50 Km hört der Spass auf
Aus der Schweiz könen Sie Ihre Hilfe für die Opfer direkt an
Cuba-Si Schweiz
leisten.
Mehr über Hurrikan in Wikipedia
(Diese Seite wird im web
als 'hurrican cuba'
aber auch als 'hurrikan kuba' gesucht und
gefunden.)
Wichtigere Tropische Wirbelstürme / Hurrikan-Namen im 2016: Matthew
Im 2012: Isaac
Im 2011: Bret Irene Katia Ophelia
Im 2010: Agatha Earl
Im 2009:
Ana, Hurrikan Bill, Claudette, Danny, Fred, Ida
|