Hurrikan Warnungen Kuba | Ciclon | Reise

000 ABNT20 KNHC 031130 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Arlene, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...ARLENE LIKELY TO WEAKEN TODAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 the center of Arlene was located near 24.5, -85.5 with movement SSE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023


000
WTNT32 KNHC 030836
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022023
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023
 
...ARLENE LIKELY TO WEAKEN TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 85.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 85.5 West.  Arlene is
moving toward the south-southeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a 
gradual turn to the southeast is expected during the next day or 
so.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Weakening is expected, and Arlene is forecast to become a 
tropical depression today, and degenerate into a remnant low by 
late tonight.  Arlene is expected to dissipate on Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with localized higher 
amounts up to 5 inches are possible through tonight across portions 
of the southern Florida Peninsula. The heavy rainfall could lead to 
isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts. 
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 03 2023


000
WTNT22 KNHC 030835
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022023
0900 UTC SAT JUN 03 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  85.5W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 150 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  85.5W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N  85.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.7N  84.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.3N  82.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N  85.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023


000
WTNT42 KNHC 030840
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022023
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023

Arlene appears to be commencing a weakening trend.  The strong 
southwesterly shear that had been affecting the system has shifted 
to a westerly or west-northwesterly direction, likely because the 
upper-level trough axis has moved to the east of the tropical 
cyclone.  This is causing an even more hostile upper-level 
environment for Arlene on the back side of the upper trough, 
since the deep convection is weakening while being stripped 
farther to the east of the center.  The current intensity 
estimate is kept at 35 kt for this advisory, in agreement with 
a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and an objective estimate 
from UW-CIMSS.  An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled 
to investigate the system later this morning.

The cyclone is moving a little faster toward the south-southeast, 
or at about 150/8 kt.  Today and tonight, Arlene is expected to turn 
toward the southeast within the flow on the western and southern 
side of a mid-level trough near the Florida Peninsula. The official 
track forecast is close to both the simple and corrected dynamical 
consensus model solutions.

Based on the current trends in the cloud pattern and the 
unfavorable atmospheric environment of strong shear and relatively 
dry low- to mid-tropospheric air, weakening is likely.  Arlene is 
forecast to become a depression later today, degenerate into a 
remnant low late tonight or early Sunday, and dissipate thereafter. 
This is similar to the previous official forecast and in good 
agreement with the numerical guidance.
 
Although Arlene is forecast to weaken well offshore, there is still
the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of the southern
Florida peninsula through today.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0900Z 24.5N  85.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 23.7N  84.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 23.3N  82.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 03 2023


037 
FONT12 KNHC 030837
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022023               
0900 UTC SAT JUN 03 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HAVANA         34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH