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2017 Namen: Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria

 

WARNUNGEN


Achtung: Externe Daten in Englisch. HolaCuba übernimmt keine Haftung.

Stand: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 09:41:19 GMT
Quelle: NHC Atlantic
Mehr Info und aktuelle Karten



Tropical Storm Beta 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image 
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 08:54:55 GMT
  
Tropical Storm Beta 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities  
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 09:33:29 GMT



Tropical Storm Beta Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map 
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 04:11:40 GMT



Tropical Storm Beta Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map 
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 08:57:44 GMT



Tropical Storm Wilfred 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image 
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 08:33:40 GMT
  
Tropical Storm Wilfred 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities  
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 09:41:02 GMT



Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image 
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 02:37:45 GMT
  
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities  
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 03:48:58 GMT



Hurricane Teddy 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image 
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 08:52:55 GMT
  
Hurricane Teddy 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities  
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 09:25:41 GMT


 
000 
ABNT20 KNHC 190510 
TWOAT  
 
Tropical Weather Outlook 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 
 
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 
 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical  
Storm Beta, located over the western Gulf of Mexico, on Hurricane  
Teddy, located over the central Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm  
Wilfred, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. The National  
Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Alpha, which  
became post-tropical over northern Portugal. 
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is moving southward and is now  
located just south of the western Azores. The cyclone is forecast to  
continue southward for the next day or two and then stall over  
marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south of the Azores. The  
cyclone could subsequently develop tropical or subtropical  
characteristics by early next week while it moves little. For more  
information about marine hazards associated with this system, see  
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.  
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. 
 
A tropical wave is located near the west coast of Africa and will  
move westward over the far eastern Atlantic during the next few  
days. Development of this system, if any, will be slow to occur  
during the next few days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.  
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. 
 
&& 
 
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Wilfred are issued under WMO  
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.  
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Wilfred are issued  
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. 
 
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO  
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at  
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/  
metarea2 
 
$$ 
Forecaster Zelinsky 

  ...BETA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST...
 As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Sep 19
 the center of Beta was located near 26.0, -92.5
 with movement N at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 996 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
 
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 190904 CCA
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number   7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222020
400 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Corrected Storm Surge values in Hazards section

...BETA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE TEXAS
COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 92.5W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from High Island, TX to Cameron,
LA, including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda
Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* East of High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 92.5 West. Beta is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slow westward
motion is expected to begin late today, with a slow northwestward
motion forecast to begin late Sunday and continue through late
Monday.  On the forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly
approach the Texas coast into early next week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast, and Beta is expected to become a
hurricane on Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda
Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Port Mansfield, TX...1-3 ft
Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Monday or Monday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by late Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area along the upper Texas and
southwestern Louisiana coast as early as tonight.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
along the south Texas coast late Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  There is an increasing risk of significant rainfall and
flooding along the Texas and Louisiana coasts Sunday through at
least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly
near the Texas coast. For additional information, see products from
your local National Weather Service office.
 
SURF:  Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas
and the Gulf Coast of Mexico later today, generated by a
combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of
Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 190852
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222020
0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM HIGH ISLAND...TX TO
CAMERON...LA INCLUDING SABINE LAKE AND CALCASIEU LAKE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT MANSFIELD...TX TO CAMERON...LA INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY...CORPUS
CHRISTI BAY...COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA
BAY...GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE AND CALCASIEU LAKE
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N  92.5W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT.......150NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N  92.5W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N  92.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.6N  92.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE  60SE  40SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.9N  93.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE  60SE  40SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.1N  94.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 35NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.4N  95.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 27.7N  95.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.1N  96.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 28.7N  95.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 29.7N  93.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N  92.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 190853
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222020
400 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020
 
Beta has generally changed little overnight.  The storm is still
quite asymmetric due to southwesterly wind shear with the low-level
center located near the southwestern edge of the main area of deep
convection. An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago showed peak winds in
the 40-45 kt range, with most of the tropical-storm-force winds on
the north side of the circulation. In addition, the latest Dvorak
classifications are 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB. The initial
intensity of 50 kt, based on the earlier aircraft data, is a little
above the satellite estimates.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are
scheduled to investigate Beta again later this morning, and the data
they collect will provide a better estimate of the intensity and
structure of the storm.
 
Beta is moving northward, with the latest initial motion estimated 
to be 360/7 kt.  The shortwave trough that has been causing the 
north to northeastward motion during the past day or so is moving 
away and a weak mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north of 
the storm soon.  This change in the steering pattern should cause 
Beta to turn westward and slow down later today and then move 
generally westward to northwestward through the remainder of the 
weekend and into early next week.  This motion should take Beta 
toward the Texas coast by Monday. Around the time Beta is forecast 
to be near the Texas coastline, the ridge is expected to retreat as 
another shortwave trough approaches, which should cause the storm to 
slow down even more and gradually turn to the northeast near the 
Texas coast by the middle of next week.  The models are in fair 
agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies close to the various 
consensus aids.
 
As mentioned above, the tropical storm is still feeling some
effects of southwesterly wind shear, but the upper-level pattern is
expected to become more favorable for strengthening later today.
Although the shear is expected to lessen, water vapor images show a
swath of dry air approaching the storm from the west.  Based on
these mixed environmental conditions, slow strengthening is
forecast during the next couple of days and Beta is forecast to
reach hurricane intensity in about 36 hours.  Beyond a few days,
the models suggest that there could be another increase in
southwesterly shear, which in combination with land interaction
should cause some weakening.  Of course, the rate of weakening will
depend on whether Beta is inland or offshore.  The NHC intensity
forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies at the
high end of the model guidance.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along
the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next
week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore
of the coast through that time. For additional information, see
products from your local National Weather Service office.
 
2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are
possible along portions of the Texas coast early next week, with
tropical storm conditions possible by late this weekend. Storm Surge
and Hurricane watches are in effect, and residents in these areas
should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow
advice given by local officials.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 26.0N  92.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 26.6N  92.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 26.9N  93.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 27.1N  94.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 27.4N  95.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  21/1800Z 27.7N  95.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 28.1N  96.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 28.7N  95.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 29.7N  93.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 190853
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222020               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   4( 6)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   3( 7)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   4( 9)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  6   3( 9)   2(11)   2(13)   1(14)   1(15)   4(19)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   5(12)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34 55   6(61)   3(64)   2(66)   1(67)   1(68)   2(70)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)   6(15)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   3(13)   4(17)
 
ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   5(13)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   3(11)   4(15)   6(21)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  1   2( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   3(12)   3(15)   6(21)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34 65  20(85)   5(90)   1(91)   1(92)   1(93)   X(93)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 11  27(38)   8(46)   2(48)   X(48)   2(50)   1(51)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   3( 7)
 
FORT POLK LA   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   4(14)   4(18)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   5(11)   5(16)   6(22)   5(27)
LAKE CHARLES   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
 
CAMERON LA     34  5  14(19)  13(32)   7(39)   5(44)   5(49)   5(54)
CAMERON LA     50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   3( 8)   3(11)
CAMERON LA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
JASPER TX      34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   5(13)   4(17)   4(21)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   5(11)   7(18)   6(24)   4(28)
KOUNTZE TX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   5(14)   7(21)   6(27)   4(31)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  3  18(21)  21(42)  15(57)   6(63)   3(66)   2(68)
GALVESTON TX   50  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)   6(19)   3(22)   3(25)
GALVESTON TX   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)  10(19)  13(32)   5(37)   3(40)
HOUSTON TX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
HOUSTON TX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   9(14)   4(18)   2(20)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   8(14)   6(20)   1(21)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   4( 4)  17(21)  20(41)  11(52)   3(55)   2(57)
FREEPORT TX    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   6(15)   3(18)   1(19)
FREEPORT TX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  7  35(42)  30(72)  11(83)   4(87)   1(88)   X(88)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   9( 9)  26(35)  17(52)   4(56)   1(57)   1(58)
GFMX 280N 950W 64  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  10(19)   5(24)   X(24)   1(25)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  X   4( 4)  10(14)   9(23)   9(32)   6(38)   3(41)
HIGH ISLAND TX 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)
HIGH ISLAND TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
MATAGORDA TX   34  2  14(16)  24(40)  21(61)   8(69)   3(72)   1(73)
MATAGORDA TX   50  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  17(23)  12(35)   3(38)   2(40)
MATAGORDA TX   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  2  11(13)  22(35)  24(59)  11(70)   3(73)   1(74)
PORT O CONNOR  50  X   X( X)   6( 6)  17(23)  14(37)   3(40)   2(42)
PORT O CONNOR  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)   1(15)   1(16)
 
ROCKPORT TX    34  X   2( 2)   8(10)  18(28)  19(47)   7(54)   2(56)
ROCKPORT TX    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  11(17)   3(20)   X(20)
ROCKPORT TX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)  13(20)  19(39)   8(47)   2(49)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   4(15)   1(16)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  2  17(19)  30(49)  16(65)  10(75)   5(80)   1(81)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   2( 2)  13(15)  16(31)   9(40)   4(44)   1(45)
GFMX 270N 960W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   6(17)   2(19)   X(19)
 
MCALLEN TX     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   9(15)   8(23)   X(23)
MCALLEN TX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
HARLINGEN TX   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)  11(19)   9(28)   X(28)
HARLINGEN TX   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
HARLINGEN TX   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   9(18)   9(27)   X(27)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  1   5( 6)   9(15)   8(23)  10(33)   6(39)   1(40)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
GFMX 250N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
LA PESCA MX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
PENSACOLA NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
KEESLER AB     34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   5(10)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               
Issued at  404 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020
Issued at  416 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020
Issued at  427 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020
Issued at  432 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020
  ...WOEFUL WILFRED HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 19
 the center of Wilfred was located near 13.1, -36.9
 with movement WNW at 17 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
 
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 190831
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wilfred Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL232020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020
 
...WOEFUL WILFRED HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 36.9W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 36.9 West. Wilfred is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Small fluctuations in intensity are possible over the weekend. A 
general weakening trend should begin by late Sunday and Wilfred is 
forecast to become a remnant low in a few days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 190856 CCA
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL232020
0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020

CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS RADII

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  36.9W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  90SE  30SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  36.9W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N  36.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.8N  39.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.8N  41.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.8N  44.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.5N  46.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.8N  48.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N  36.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 190832
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL232020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020
 
Helpful AMSR microwave imagery from near 4Z revealed that Wilfred 
consists of a small low embedded within a broader elongated
area of low pressure. A skinny, ragged band of convection wraps
around the western and southern portions of the tropical storm, but
Wilfred is only producing a small amount of convection near its 
center. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are 
generally near 35 kt, and the intensity is held at that value.
 
No noteworthy changes were made to the NHC track or intensity
forecasts. Wilfred should continue to move generally
west-northwestward for the next few days, steered by a
subtropical ridge to the north. Small fluctuations in intensity are
possible for the next day or two, but Wilfred should be on the 
overall decline by the end of the weekend due to increasing wind 
shear and an expected influx of dry, stable air. The dynamical 
guidance consensus is that Wilfred will open into a trough and 
dissipate in about 72 h, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. 
Both the NHC track and intensity forecasts are based on the 
multi-model consensus throughout the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 13.1N  36.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 13.8N  39.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 14.8N  41.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 15.8N  44.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 16.5N  46.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  21/1800Z 16.8N  48.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020                                              

000
FONT13 KNHC 190831
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL232020               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 
  ...SHORT-LIVED ALPHA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW OVER THE DISTRICT OF VISEU PORTUGAL.. ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 As of 3:00 AM GMT Sat Sep 19
 the center of Alpha was located near 40.9, -6.9
 with movement NE at 16 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
 
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 190235
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL242020
300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020
 
...SHORT-LIVED ALPHA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW OVER THE DISTRICT OF
VISEU PORTUGAL..
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.9N 6.9W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM ENE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in Portugal should monitor the progress of Alpha.
Additional information on this system can be found in products from
the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha
was located near latitude 40.9 North, longitude 6.9 West.  The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the 
next 12 hours or so. Alpha should move across northern Portugal and 
Spain before dissipating later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  The remnant low is expected to dissipate by 
Saturday night.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...Information on wind hazards from Alpha can be found in
products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at
www.ipma.pt.
 
RAINFALL...Alpha is expected to produce storm totals of 1 to 2 
inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts of 3 inches over the 
northern portion of Portugal and into west-central Spain before rain 
tapers off later today.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 190235
TCMAT4
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL242020
0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN PORTUGAL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALPHA.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS FROM
THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR SEA AND ATMOSPHERE AT WWW.IPMA.PT.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N   6.9W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N   6.9W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.5N   7.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 42.6N   4.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.9N   6.9W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
 
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 190236
TCDAT4
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL242020
300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020
 
METEOSAT imagery, IPMA radar data, and surface observations
indicate that Alpha has degenerated to a post-tropical remnant low
just a few miles to the southeast of Viseu, Portugal.  Therefore, 
this the last NHC advisory.  Surface wind data support an initial 
intensity of 25 kt.  The rapidly deteriorating small remnant low is 
expected to move generally toward the northeast at about 14 kt for 
the next 6 to 12 hours before dissipating over northern Spain by 
Saturday night.  The NHC forecast track is basically an update of 
the previous advisory and lies between the tightly clustered 
deterministic guidance.

Additional information on the hazards from this system can be found
in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at
www.ipma.pt.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0300Z 40.9N   6.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  19/1200Z 42.6N   4.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020                                              

000
FONT14 KNHC 190235
PWSAT4
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALPHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL242020               
0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 40.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 6.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED     
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  
  ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA AND NEARBY WATERS... ...LARGE SWELLS THAT CAN CAUSE RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MOST WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 19
 the center of Teddy was located near 24.9, -58.2
 with movement NW at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 952 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
 
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 190850
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020
 
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA AND NEARBY WATERS...
...LARGE SWELLS THAT CAN CAUSE RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MOST
WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 58.2W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Bermuda.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located 
near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 58.2 West. Teddy is moving 
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion 
is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is likely on 
Sunday, followed by a continued northward motion into early next 
week. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday 
and move near or east of the island late Sunday and early Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today. A more 
pronounced decrease in Teddy's maximum winds is forecast to begin on 
Sunday, but the wind field of the hurricane is forecast to increase 
substantially at the same time.
 
Hurricane-force winds currently extend outward up to 60 miles (95 
km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward 
up to 230 miles (370 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect
Bermuda and the nearby waters beginning Sunday afternoon or
evening. These conditions may linger through most of the day Monday.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells
from Teddy will begin affecting most of the east coast of the United
States later today and will reach Atlantic Canada by early Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 190849
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202020
0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N  58.2W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  952 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  60SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 300SE 390SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N  58.2W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N  57.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.3N  59.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.0N  61.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.5N  62.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 31.6N  61.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 170SW 230NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.2N  61.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
34 KT...300NE 250SE 200SW 300NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.2N  61.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.
34 KT...350NE 250SE 250SW 300NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 45.5N  61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 51.5N  53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N  58.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 190851
TCDAT5
 
Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020
 
Teddy's satellite presentation has fluctuated through the early 
morning; most recently the eye has cooled and become poorly defined. 
GMI microwave imagery at 0350 UTC showed that Teddy was most of the 
way through an eyewall replacement cycle, and this is probably why 
its satellite appearance has degraded a little. AT 0600 UTC, a blend 
of objective and subjective intensity estimates still supported an 
intensity of 115 kt, but given recent trends noted in satellite 
imagery, the intensity is set at 110 kt for the advisory.
 
Little change was made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts, both 
of which remain near the model consensus throughout the forecast 
period. Teddy will likely turn northward by early Sunday as it 
approaches a frontal system over the western Atlantic. This should 
steer the hurricane east of Bermuda, though the hurricane's large 
wind field means that the island will still likely experience some 
tropical storm conditions begining Sunday afternoon or evening and 
continuing well into Monday. Fluctuations in intensity are likely 
through this period, but these fluctuations will have no impact on 
the overall size of Teddy's wind field, which is forecast to 
increase markedly, especially once it begins extratropical 
transition (ET).

The ET process could begin as soon as Monday, and based on GFS and 
ECMWF model fields, it should be complete in a little more than 72 
h. A rapid decrease in Teddy's max winds is expected after it 
becomes post-tropical, but the cyclone's wind field could actually 
expand further. The NHC forecast implies a due northward motion 
until the center of Teddy moves near Nova Scotia in about 4 days, 
but the cyclone's interaction with a cut-off low and a building 
ridge to the east of the cyclone could deflect it a little to the 
left between 72 and 96 h. A turn toward the northeast is expected by 
the end of the forecast as Teddy interacts with another mid-latitude 
trough approaching from the northwest.
 
Teddy an extensive area of large waves and swells which are 
impacting much of the western Atlantic basin.  See the Key Messages 
below.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda
late Sunday or Monday, Tropical Storm conditions are still likely 
for the island and its nearby waters beginning Sunday afternoon or 
evening. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
 
2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast through the
weekend.
 
3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 24.9N  58.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 26.3N  59.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 28.0N  61.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 29.5N  62.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 31.6N  61.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  21/1800Z 35.2N  61.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 39.2N  61.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 45.5N  61.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  24/0600Z 51.5N  53.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020                                              

000
FONT15 KNHC 190849
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202020               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  19(24)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)  28(47)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)  31(54)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)
BURGEO NFLD    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  26(27)  27(54)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  14(22)
PTX BASQUES    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  37(39)  10(49)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   5(20)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  41(43)  18(61)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   9(24)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  46(60)   6(66)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  25(27)   5(32)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   1(12)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  41(46)   3(49)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)   1(22)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)   1(23)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   3(22)
MONCTON NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
MONCTON NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   1(16)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   1(14)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   1( 1)  15(16)  20(36)   6(42)   X(42)   X(42)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 


regen hurrikan
So kann es aussehen:
die ersten Tropfen sind schon da

Hurrikane sind tropische Wirbelstürme. Gefahren entstehen durch Windgeschwindigkeiten, Wellen und schwere Niederschläge. In Kuba wird Hurrican 'ciclon' genannt. Saizon ist Mai bis November. Kuba ist für Hurrikane besser als die USA oder andere Länder der Karibik vorbereitet, obwohl erhebliche Sachschäden werden der Insel nicht erspart.




Sind Sie da? Gerade etwas passiert?

Berichten Sie es auf HolaCuba:



foto hurrikan kuba

Rechts: typisches Bild eines Hurrikanes

Danke für das Foto, Andrew
(war unser Gast in Varadero)




Wir werden oft gefragt: Und wie verhält man sich als Tourist, wenn man dort von einem Hurrikan überrascht wird?

Es gelten zwei Regeln:
1. Zu Hause bleiben.
2. Den Auforderungen der Zivilschutzes folgen.

Alle unsere Casas sind solide gebaut, keine ist aus Holz.




Hurrikanschäden

hurrikan schäden
Nach dem ciclon:
Baumaterialien werden gefragt

Offiziel als Hurrikan zählt das Unwetter ab 118 Km/Stunde. Aber schon ab 50 Km hört der Spass auf

Aus der Schweiz könen Sie Ihre Hilfe für die Opfer direkt an Cuba-Si Schweiz leisten.

Mehr über Hurrikan in Wikipedia

(Diese Seite wird im web als 'hurrican cuba' aber auch als 'hurrikan kuba' gesucht und gefunden.)


Wichtigere Tropische Wirbelstürme / Hurrikan-Namen im 2016: Matthew

Im 2012: Isaac

Im 2011: Bret Irene Katia Ophelia

Im 2010: Agatha Earl

Im 2009: Ana, Hurrikan Bill, Claudette, Danny, Fred, Ida

Ob Hurrikan oder nicht: reisen Sie nicht allein!

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