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473 ABNT20 KNHC 051727 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal, located off the coast of the southeastern United States. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are listed under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are listed under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. $$ Forecaster Brown

...CHANTAL MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 the center of Chantal was located near 31.9, -78.7 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

460 
WTNT33 KNHC 052033
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
 
...CHANTAL MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA
THIS EVENING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 78.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Chantal.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was
located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the
north-northwest is expected to begin this evening, followed by a
turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South
Carolina overnight or early Sunday morning.
  
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast before Chantal reaches the
coast.  Rapid weakening is expected after landfall.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area this 
evening and overnight.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy 
rainfall across portions of the Carolinas through Monday. Storm 
total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, 
is expected.  This rainfall will result in an elevated risk for 
flash flooding. 
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Edisto Beach, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge 
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak 
Storm Surge Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge
 
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and Sunday across
parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.
 
SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to
the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025

685 
WTNT23 KNHC 052032
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032025
2100 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N  78.7W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE  75SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N  78.7W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N  78.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.0N  79.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.1N  79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.3N  79.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N  78.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

398 
WTNT43 KNHC 052033
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
 
The satellite presentation of Chantal has not changed much
throughout the day with convective banding and a concentrated area
of deep convection located over the eastern semicircle of the
storm. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that
investigated Chantal through midday found a peak 850-mb flight-level
wind of 51 kt which supported the increase in winds to 40 kt on the
1800 UTC intermediate advisory.  With no significant change in
structure since that time, the intensity remains 40 kt for this
advisory. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this evening.
 
The moderate shear that has been affecting Chantal is forecast to
decrease some this evening, however drier mid-level air appears to
be being entrained into the western part of the circulation.
Therefore only slight strengthening is predicted before Chantal
reaches the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday.
After landfall, steady weakening should occur and the system is
expected to open up into a trough by Monday.
 
Recent fixes show that Chantal has begun moving a little faster
toward the north with an initial motion estimate of 360/6.  The
track guidance suggests that the storm will turn north-
northwestward between a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf
and a narrow mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. A turn to
the northeast is expected after landfall as Chantal becomes more
embedded within the low- to mid-level flow around the west side of
the ridge. The NHC track forecast lies close to the TVCA
multi-model consensus, which is close to the previous NHC forecast.
 
Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds
and rainfall to the right of the landfall location.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.
 
2. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas will cause flash 
flooding concerns through Monday, especially in urban areas.
 
3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers
should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 31.9N  78.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 33.0N  79.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 34.1N  79.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  07/0600Z 35.3N  79.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025

111 
FONT13 KNHC 052033
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032025               
2100 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
RALEIGH NC     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  2   6( 8)   5(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  6   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  7   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
SURF CITY NC   34 16   4(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 14   4(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34 35   4(39)   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  7  10(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34 44  10(54)   1(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
LITTLE RIVER   50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 52  12(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34 46  12(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34 24   6(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
CHARLESTON SC  50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  9   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN