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000 ABNT20 KNHC 150529 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Offshore the Southeastern U.S. Coast: A non-tropical low pressure area has formed along a frontal boundary a couple of hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coast and is producing winds to gale force north of its center. The low is forecast to move northwestward or northward over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream toward the coasts of North Carolina and South Carolina, and it could become a subtropical or tropical storm during the next day or two if the associated front dissipates and showers and thunderstorms become sufficiently organized. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, the low is likely to bring gusty winds, heavy rains with the potential for flash flooding, coastal flooding, and dangerous beach conditions to portions of the U.S. Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast during the next couple of days, and interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress. Additional information can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Berg

...GORDON BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 15 the center of Gordon was located near 19.6, -44.8 with movement WSW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024


000
WTNT32 KNHC 150838
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
500 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024
 
...GORDON BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 44.8W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 44.8 West.  Gordon is
moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A west to 
west-southwest motion is expected during the next few days, with 
Gordon forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of the 
week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gordon is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today,
and it could degenerate into a remnant low at any time during the
next few days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the north of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024


000
WTNT22 KNHC 150900
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072024
0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  44.8W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  44.8W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  44.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.5N  46.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.3N  47.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.1N  48.9W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N  49.9W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.0N  50.4W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.2N  50.7W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.6N  50.6W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 23.0N  49.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N  44.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024


000
WTNT42 KNHC 150838
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
500 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024
 
Due to strong westerly shear, deep convection associated with
Gordon is located at least 120 n mi to the east of the exposed
center of circulation.  An ASCAT-C pass from last evening revealed
that maximum winds were barely tropical storm force just to the
north of the center, and the latest satellite intensity estimates
suggest Gordon may have weakened further since that time.  The
initial intensity is held at 35 kt for now, but additional ASCAT
data should help us re-assess Gordon's maximum winds later this
morning.
 
Gordon has been moving west-southwestward (255/9 kt), steered by a
low- to mid-level ridge to the north.  The cyclone is forecast to
turn westward later today, but the ridge is expected to weaken
during the next few days, which should cause Gordon to slow down
considerably.  A mid- to upper-level trough is expected to amplify
northeast of the Leeward Islands by the middle of the week, and
Gordon is likely to respond by slowing down to speeds of less than
5 kt while gradually turning northwestward and then northward on
days 3-5.  The updated NHC forecast has been shifted slightly south
of the previous prediction during the first 3 days of the forecast,
trending toward the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and then shows a
slightly sharper recurvature on days 4 and 5.
 
Continued shear, a dry mid-level atmosphere, and a subsident
upper-level environment are likely to cause Gordon to weaken to a
tropical depression later today.  In fact, all of the global models
show the wind field weakening and broadening during the next couple
of days, and it's entirely possible that Gordon could degenerate
into a remnant low at any time if deep convection wanes.  If
Gordon survives the next few days, the environment could become a
little more conducive for strengthening toward the end of the
forecast period.  The NHC intensity forecast generally follows a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, which lie near the lower bound of
the guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 19.6N  44.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 19.5N  46.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 19.3N  47.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 19.1N  48.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 19.0N  49.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  17/1800Z 19.0N  50.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 19.2N  50.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 20.6N  50.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 23.0N  49.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024


000
FONT12 KNHC 150838
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072024               
0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG