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000 ABNT20 KNHC 010507 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Philippe, located several hundred miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rina, located over the central subtropical Atlantic. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Brown

...PHILIPPE MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHILIPPE... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Oct 1 the center of Philippe was located near 16.4, -58.2 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 01 2023


000
WTNT32 KNHC 010846
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
500 AM AST Sun Oct 01 2023
 
...PHILIPPE MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF PHILIPPE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 58.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.  Tropical storm watches or warnings may
be required for a portion of that area later today.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 58.2 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A west-northwestward 
to northwestward motion is expected to begin today and continue 
into tonight.  A turn toward the northwest with an increase in 
forward speed is expected Sunday and Monday, followed by a northward 
motion on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Philippe 
is forecast to pass near or just northeast of the northern Leeward 
Islands on Monday and Monday night. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next day or 
so.  Some strengthening is possible by late Monday as Philippe 
begins to move north of the Leeward Islands. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) 
primarily to the east of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. 

RAINFALL:  Philippe is forecast to produce 1 to 4 inches of rain
across portions of the Leeward Islands by Monday into Tuesday. This
rainfall may result in isolated flash flooding.
 
WIND:  Gusty winds are possible in portions of the northern
leeward islands by Monday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023


000
WTNT22 KNHC 010846
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023
0900 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  58.2W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 130SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 135SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  58.2W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  57.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.9N  58.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.6N  59.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.4N  60.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.2N  61.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.4N  61.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.9N  62.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 25.5N  61.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 28.9N  59.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N  58.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 01 2023


000
WTNT42 KNHC 010851
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
500 AM AST Sun Oct 01 2023
 
The center of Philippe has become exposed to the northwest of the
large convective mass seen infrared satellite imagery.  A very
timely AMSR2 microwave overpass helped to pinpoint the center
location around 0600 UTC, and since that time the center has become
more apparent in the geostationary satellite imagery.  Philippe is
still producing a large area of convection with clouds tops colder
than -80 deg C to the southeast of its center.  The latest Dvorak
satellite estimates range from 45 kt from SAB to 55 kt from TAFB.
The initial intensity is held at 45 kt in agreement with the
earlier scatterometer data.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Philippe again this morning.
 
Philippe is moving a little faster toward the west overnight.  A 
weak mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone should begin 
to steer Philippe west-northwestward to northwestward by later 
today, and that motion is expected to continue into Monday.  The
track guidance has once more shifted westward during the first
couple of days, which has again necessitated a westward shift in 
the NHC track forecast during that time.  The new track forecast is 
a little closer to the northern Leeward Islands.  It should be 
noted that the model guidance continues to show very little outward 
extent of tropical-storm-force winds over the western semicircle of 
Philippe through 48 hours, however given the typical track forecast 
uncertainty tropical storm watches or warnings could be required 
for a portion of the northern Leeward Islands later today.  After 
48 hours, Philippe is expected to turn northward as it moves around 
the western side of the ridge.  Later in the forecast  period, a 
mid-tropospheric trough over the western Atlantic should cause 
Philippe to turn north-northeastward.
 
The global models and the SHIPS intensity guidance indicate that 
the west-northwesterly vertical shear over Philippe will remain 
strong during the next couple of days.  Therefore, little change in 
strength is expected during that time.  Later in the forecast
period, the vertical shear could lessen somewhat allowing Philippe 
to strengthen.  The intensity models are generally lower this 
cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted downward but it 
remains at the upper end of guidance. 

KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Philippe is forecast to pass near or just northeast of the 
northern Leeward Islands Monday and Monday night.  Interests 
there should continue to monitor the progress of this system as 
tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for a portion 
of that area later today. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 16.4N  58.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 16.9N  58.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 17.6N  59.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 18.4N  60.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 19.2N  61.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 20.4N  61.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 21.9N  62.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 25.5N  61.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 28.9N  59.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023


000
FONT12 KNHC 010846
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  32         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023               
0900 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT JOHN     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   4(14)   X(14)   1(15)
 
SABA           34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BARBUDA        34  1   3( 4)   8(12)  10(22)   3(25)   X(25)   X(25)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN

...RINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Oct 1 the center of Rina was located near 24.3, -53.7 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 01 2023


000
WTNT33 KNHC 010834
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182023
500 AM AST Sun Oct 01 2023
 
...RINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 53.7W
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was
located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 53.7 West. Rina is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion 
is expected to continue today.  A turn toward the north and then 
north-northeast is expected tonight and Monday. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the day or so.  Rina is expected 
to become a remnant low later today or tonight, and dissipate by 
early Tuesday. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023


000
WTNT23 KNHC 010834
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182023
0900 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N  53.7W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N  53.7W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N  53.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.6N  55.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.7N  55.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.4N  54.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N  53.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 01 2023


000
WTNT43 KNHC 010835
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182023
500 AM AST Sun Oct 01 2023
 
Strong northwesterly shear continues to take a toll on Rina.  The
cyclone has been producing an area of deep convection overnight,
but it is disorganized and located well southeast of the exposed
center.  Any convection that has occurred near the center during
the past 12-18 hours has been very short-lived.  Given the tight 
circulation that is noted in infrared satellite imagery, the 
initial wind speed is held at a possibly generous 35 kt for this 
advisory.  Scatterometer data later this morning should help to 
determine if Rina is still producing tropical-storm-force winds. 
 
Environmental conditions consisting of moderate to strong vertical
wind shear and dry mid-level air should cause gradual weakening 
during the next day or two.  Rina is forecast to become a remnant 
low later today or tonight, and the global models indicate that the 
circulation will open up into a trough of low pressure and 
dissipate within a couple of days.
 
Rina is moving northwestward at about 12 kt. The cyclone is
expected to turn northward later today as it is steered between a
low- to mid-level ridge to its northeast and a mid-tropospheric
trough over the western Atlantic. The latest NHC track forecast is
near the center of the guidance envelope, which is slightly east of 
the previous advisory. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 24.3N  53.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 25.6N  55.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  02/0600Z 27.7N  55.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/1800Z 30.4N  54.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023


000
FONT13 KNHC 010835
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182023               
0900 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN