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473 ABNT20 KNHC 051727 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal, located off the coast of the southeastern United States. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are listed under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are listed under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. $$ Forecaster Brown

...CHANTAL STRENGTHENS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING... As of 2:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 the center of Chantal was located near 31.6, -78.7 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

000
WTNT33 KNHC 051735
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
 
...CHANTAL STRENGTHENS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA 
THIS EVENING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 78.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Chantal.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was 
located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is 
moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A motion toward the 
north-northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn 
to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center 
of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina 
overnight or early Sunday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected before 
Chantal reaches the coast.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
primarily to the east of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is
1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning
later today.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas
through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local
amounts up to 6 inches, is expected and these rains could cause
flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Edisto Beach, SC to South Santee River, SC...1-2 ft
 
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into Sunday
along the coast of eastern South Carolina and much of North
Carolina.
 
SURF: The tropical storm is expected to bring life-threatening
surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to
the Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025

000
WTNT23 KNHC 051453
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032025
1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N  78.7W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   1 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N  78.7W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  79.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.8N  79.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.1N  79.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.6N  79.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 35.8N  78.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N  78.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

000
WTNT43 KNHC 051455
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
 
Satellite images suggest that Chantal has been organizing and
gaining strength. The storm is still asymmetric though, with most
of the associated showers and thunderstorms located near and to the
east of the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently
investigating the system and have found that the pressure has
dropped to 1007 mb. The plane has yet to sample the area of strong
thunderstorms, where the highest winds are likely occurring. The
initial intensity is set at 35 kt for now. The outer rainbands are
beginning to reach portions of South and North Carolina, and
conditions along the coast within the watch and warning areas are
expected to continue to deteriorate throughout the day.
 
Chantal has barely moved since last night, but a motion to the
north-northwest is expected to begin soon. The main steering
features appear to be a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf and a
narrow mid-level ridge across the mid-Atlantic region. The flow
between these features should cause Chantal to move inland over
South Carolina Sunday morning. It should be noted that center
reformations are possible, which could cause some erratic motion.
After landfall, a turn to the northeast is expected when the storm
moves on the western side of the ridge. The NHC track forecast lies
close to the previous one, and the latest HCCA and Google Deep Mind
solutions.
 
Additional strengthening seems likely in the short term as Chantal
is expected to remain over warm water and move into a lower wind
shear environment. In addition, the shear direction is expected to
shift from southwesterly to southerly, which is more conducive for
strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than
the previous one, and in line with the latest HMON, HAFS-A, and
HAFS-B guidance. After landfall, steady weakening is expected until
the system dissipates in 48 to 60 hours.
 
Chantal is expected to remain a lopsided system during the next day
or so. Therefore, the strongest winds are anticipated to occur to
the right of the landfall location.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.
 
2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash
flooding through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could
occur within more urbanized areas in the coastal plain of the
Carolinas.
 
3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. Beach goers
should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 31.1N  78.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 31.8N  79.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 33.1N  79.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  07/0000Z 34.6N  79.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  07/1200Z 35.8N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025

000
FONT13 KNHC 051455
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032025               
1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  3   6( 9)   2(11)   4(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  3   7(10)   3(13)   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  7  12(19)   5(24)   4(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  1   7( 8)   4(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34 14  26(40)   5(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   9( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34 15  36(51)   6(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 19  42(61)   5(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  6  28(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34 30  29(59)   1(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34 17  10(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI