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Palma Real von Kuba

Hurricane (ciclon)
2017 Names: Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria

 

WARNINGS


Disclaimer: External data. HolaCuba assumes no liability.

Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 08:34:20 GMT
Quelle: NHC Atlantic
Mehr Info und aktuelle Karten



Tropical Storm Beta 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image 
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 05:33:40 GMT
  
Tropical Storm Beta 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities  
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 03:33:46 GMT



Tropical Storm Beta Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map 
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 04:11:40 GMT



Tropical Storm Beta Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map 
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 02:58:56 GMT



Tropical Storm Wilfred 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image 
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 08:33:40 GMT
  
Tropical Storm Wilfred 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities  
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 08:33:40 GMT



Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image 
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 02:37:45 GMT
  
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities  
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 03:48:58 GMT



Hurricane Teddy 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image 
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 05:35:59 GMT
  
Hurricane Teddy 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities  
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 03:23:26 GMT


 
000 
ABNT20 KNHC 190510 
TWOAT  
 
Tropical Weather Outlook 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 
 
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 
 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical  
Storm Beta, located over the western Gulf of Mexico, on Hurricane  
Teddy, located over the central Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm  
Wilfred, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. The National  
Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Alpha, which  
became post-tropical over northern Portugal. 
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is moving southward and is now  
located just south of the western Azores. The cyclone is forecast to  
continue southward for the next day or two and then stall over  
marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south of the Azores. The  
cyclone could subsequently develop tropical or subtropical  
characteristics by early next week while it moves little. For more  
information about marine hazards associated with this system, see  
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.  
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. 
 
A tropical wave is located near the west coast of Africa and will  
move westward over the far eastern Atlantic during the next few  
days. Development of this system, if any, will be slow to occur  
during the next few days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.  
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. 
 
&& 
 
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Wilfred are issued under WMO  
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.  
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Wilfred are issued  
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. 
 
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO  
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at  
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/  
metarea2 
 
$$ 
Forecaster Zelinsky 

  ...BETA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
 As of 1:00 AM CDT Sat Sep 19
 the center of Beta was located near 25.8, -92.2
 with movement NNE at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 996 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
 
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 190533
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222020
100 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020
 
...BETA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 92.2W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield, TX to High Island, TX including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda
Bay, and Galveston Bay
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* East of High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 92.2 West.  Beta is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A slow
westward motion is expected to begin late today.  A slow
northwestward motion is forecast to begin late Sunday and continue
through late Monday.  On the forecast track, the center of Beta will
slowly approach the Texas coast early next week.
 
Maximum sustained are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Beta is expected to become a
hurricane on Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Port Mansfield, TX to High Island, TX including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda
Bay, and Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield, TX...1-3 ft
High Island, TX to Morgan City, LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu
Lake, and Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Monday or Monday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by late Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area along the upper Texas and
southwestern Louisiana coast as early as tonight.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
along the south Texas coast late Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and
flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the
middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and
along or offshore of the coast through that time. For additional
information, see products from your local National Weather Service
office.
 
SURF:  Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas
and the Gulf Coast of Mexico later today, generated by a
combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of
Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 190257
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222020
0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT MANSFIELD...TX TO
HIGH ISLAND...TX INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY...CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...COPANO
BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON 
BAY.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT ARANSAS...TX TO HIGH
ISLAND...TX.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS
TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE AND EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TO MORGAN
CITY LA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT MANSFIELD...TX TO HIGH ISLAND...TX INCLUDING BAFFIN 
BAY...CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO
BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON BAY
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N  92.3W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT.......150NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N  92.3W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N  92.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.3N  92.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE  60SE  40SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 26.8N  92.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE  60SE  40SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.8N  93.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 35NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.0N  94.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.4N  95.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 27.8N  96.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 28.4N  95.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.4N  94.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N  92.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 190258
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222020
1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
 
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Beta
this evening found that the center has re-formed or been tugged
northeastward by bursts of strong convection.  While flying through
that convection, the plane measured a peak flight-level wind of 57
kt at 10,000 feet before descending to 2500 feet.  To the northwest
of the center, the SFMR instrument on the plane measured a solid
area of 46-48 kt, and there have been multiple ship reports in the
region of 40-45 kt.  Based on all these data, Beta's initial
intensity is estimated to be 50 kt.  The plane reported an 
extrapolated minimum pressure of 996 mb on the last pass through 
the center, which also corresponds to a typical 50-kt tropical 
storm.
 
The aircraft fixes indicate that Beta is moving north-northeastward,
or 030/10 kt.  This motion is expected to continue for the next 12
hours or so, but as mid-level ridging develops over the Southern
Plains on Saturday, Beta should begin to slow down and turn
westward.  A slow motion in the direction of the Texas coast should
continue through day 3, with a shortwave trough possibly causing the
cyclone to recurve and move northeastward near or along the Texas
coast on days 4 and 5.  While there remains a large amount of spread
among the track models, they all agree on this general scenario and
indicate that Beta is likely to move very slowly as it makes its
closest approach to the Texas coast.  The initial position fixed by
the plane necessitated a northward shift in the NHC official
forecast compared to the previous forecast for the first 3 days, but
it comes back in line with the previous prediction on days 4 and 5.
 
Beta has been able to strengthen despite being affected by strong
southwesterly shear.  The shear could begin to relax over the next
few days, particularly by day 2 and 3, which could allow for some
further strengthening.  The SHIPS guidance remains the most
aggressive of the intensity models, and the NHC intensity forecast
leans heavily toward those solutions given Beta's recent
intensification trend (which SHIPS seemed to handle better).  Beta
is forecast to steadily strengthen and become a hurricane in a
couple of days as it approaches the Texas coast.  Some weakening is
forecast on days 4 and 5 due to another increase in southwesterly
shear and possible land interaction.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along
the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next
week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore
of the coast through that time. For additional information, see
products from your local National Weather Service office.
 
2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are
possible along portions of the Texas coast early next week, with
tropical storm conditions possible by late this weekend. Storm Surge
and Hurricane watches are in effect, and residents in these areas
should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow
advice given by local officials.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0300Z 25.5N  92.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 26.3N  92.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 26.8N  92.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 26.8N  93.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 27.0N  94.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  21/1200Z 27.4N  95.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 27.8N  96.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  23/0000Z 28.4N  95.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  24/0000Z 29.4N  94.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 190258
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222020               
0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)
 
BURAS LA       34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   3(10)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  9   6(15)   3(18)   2(20)   1(21)   1(22)   3(25)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   4(12)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34 49  15(64)   4(68)   2(70)   2(72)   X(72)   2(74)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  1   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   2(10)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   5(15)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   3(12)   2(14)   4(18)
 
ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   4(13)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   4(12)   2(14)   6(20)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)   3(12)   3(15)   5(20)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34 35  40(75)  11(86)   2(88)   2(90)   X(90)   1(91)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  2  30(32)  13(45)   3(48)   1(49)   2(51)   1(52)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)   2(13)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
 
FORT POLK LA   34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)   2(12)   5(17)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)   6(16)   4(20)   6(26)
LAKE CHARLES   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
 
CAMERON LA     34  3  15(18)  12(30)   7(37)   7(44)   4(48)   6(54)
CAMERON LA     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   4(11)
CAMERON LA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
 
JASPER TX      34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   6(12)   4(16)   4(20)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   9(18)   5(23)   4(27)
KOUNTZE TX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   5(12)   8(20)   6(26)   5(31)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  1  15(16)  16(32)  15(47)  12(59)   4(63)   3(66)
GALVESTON TX   50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   8(15)   4(19)   3(22)
GALVESTON TX   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   6(12)  15(27)   7(34)   4(38)
HOUSTON TX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)
HOUSTON TX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   6(18)   3(21)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   7(19)   2(21)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   3( 3)   9(12)  14(26)  17(43)   5(48)   4(52)
FREEPORT TX    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)   3(15)   1(16)
FREEPORT TX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  3  25(28)  29(57)  17(74)   8(82)   2(84)   1(85)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   3( 3)  16(19)  19(38)  11(49)   2(51)   1(52)
GFMX 280N 950W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   7(20)   1(21)   1(22)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   8(17)  11(28)   6(34)   4(38)
HIGH ISLAND TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)
HIGH ISLAND TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MATAGORDA TX   34  1   9(10)  20(30)  19(49)  16(65)   5(70)   2(72)
MATAGORDA TX   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)  17(28)   4(32)   2(34)
MATAGORDA TX   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)   1(12)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  1   7( 8)  19(27)  19(46)  19(65)   5(70)   2(72)
PORT O CONNOR  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)  18(30)   5(35)   2(37)
PORT O CONNOR  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   2(12)   1(13)
 
ROCKPORT TX    34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)  12(19)  23(42)  10(52)   2(54)
ROCKPORT TX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   5(19)   1(20)
ROCKPORT TX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   9(14)  19(33)  11(44)   2(46)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   5(16)   1(17)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  1  10(11)  27(38)  22(60)  14(74)   6(80)   X(80)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  18(26)  14(40)   5(45)   2(47)
GFMX 270N 960W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   9(17)   3(20)   1(21)
 
MCALLEN TX     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   8(13)   9(22)   2(24)
MCALLEN TX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
HARLINGEN TX   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)  11(18)  10(28)   2(30)
HARLINGEN TX   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
HARLINGEN TX   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)  10(18)  10(28)   1(29)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  1   4( 5)  11(16)   9(25)  12(37)   9(46)   1(47)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)   1(12)
GFMX 250N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PESCA MX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
KEESLER AB     34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   3(10)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     
Issued at  1022 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
Issued at  1026 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
Issued at  1039 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
Issued at  1055 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
  ...WOEFUL WILFRED HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 19
 the center of Wilfred was located near 13.1, -36.9
 with movement WNW at 17 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
 
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 190831
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wilfred Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL232020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020
 
...WOEFUL WILFRED HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 36.9W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 36.9 West. Wilfred is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Small fluctuations in intensity are possible over the weekend. A 
general weakening trend should begin by late Sunday and Wilfred is 
forecast to become a remnant low in a few days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 190831
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL232020
0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  36.9W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  90SE  30SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  36.9W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N  36.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.8N  39.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.8N  41.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.8N  44.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.5N  46.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.8N  48.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N  36.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 190832
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL232020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020
 
Helpful AMSR microwave imagery from near 4Z revealed that Wilfred 
consists of a small low embedded within a broader elongated
area of low pressure. A skinny, ragged band of convection wraps
around the western and southern portions of the tropical storm, but
Wilfred is only producing a small amount of convection near its 
center. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are 
generally near 35 kt, and the intensity is held at that value.
 
No noteworthy changes were made to the NHC track or intensity
forecasts. Wilfred should continue to move generally
west-northwestward for the next few days, steered by a
subtropical ridge to the north. Small fluctuations in intensity are
possible for the next day or two, but Wilfred should be on the 
overall decline by the end of the weekend due to increasing wind 
shear and an expected influx of dry, stable air. The dynamical 
guidance consensus is that Wilfred will open into a trough and 
dissipate in about 72 h, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. 
Both the NHC track and intensity forecasts are based on the 
multi-model consensus throughout the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 13.1N  36.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 13.8N  39.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 14.8N  41.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 15.8N  44.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 16.5N  46.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  21/1800Z 16.8N  48.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020                                              

000
FONT13 KNHC 190831
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL232020               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 
  ...SHORT-LIVED ALPHA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW OVER THE DISTRICT OF VISEU PORTUGAL.. ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 As of 3:00 AM GMT Sat Sep 19
 the center of Alpha was located near 40.9, -6.9
 with movement NE at 16 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
 
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 190235
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL242020
300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020
 
...SHORT-LIVED ALPHA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW OVER THE DISTRICT OF
VISEU PORTUGAL..
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.9N 6.9W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM ENE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in Portugal should monitor the progress of Alpha.
Additional information on this system can be found in products from
the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha
was located near latitude 40.9 North, longitude 6.9 West.  The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the 
next 12 hours or so. Alpha should move across northern Portugal and 
Spain before dissipating later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  The remnant low is expected to dissipate by 
Saturday night.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...Information on wind hazards from Alpha can be found in
products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at
www.ipma.pt.
 
RAINFALL...Alpha is expected to produce storm totals of 1 to 2 
inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts of 3 inches over the 
northern portion of Portugal and into west-central Spain before rain 
tapers off later today.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 190235
TCMAT4
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL242020
0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN PORTUGAL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALPHA.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS FROM
THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR SEA AND ATMOSPHERE AT WWW.IPMA.PT.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N   6.9W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N   6.9W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.5N   7.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 42.6N   4.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.9N   6.9W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
 
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 190236
TCDAT4
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL242020
300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020
 
METEOSAT imagery, IPMA radar data, and surface observations
indicate that Alpha has degenerated to a post-tropical remnant low
just a few miles to the southeast of Viseu, Portugal.  Therefore, 
this the last NHC advisory.  Surface wind data support an initial 
intensity of 25 kt.  The rapidly deteriorating small remnant low is 
expected to move generally toward the northeast at about 14 kt for 
the next 6 to 12 hours before dissipating over northern Spain by 
Saturday night.  The NHC forecast track is basically an update of 
the previous advisory and lies between the tightly clustered 
deterministic guidance.

Additional information on the hazards from this system can be found
in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at
www.ipma.pt.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0300Z 40.9N   6.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  19/1200Z 42.6N   4.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020                                              

000
FONT14 KNHC 190235
PWSAT4
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALPHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL242020               
0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 40.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 6.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED     
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  
  ...MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...
 As of 2:00 AM AST Sat Sep 19
 the center of Teddy was located near 24.4, -57.7
 with movement NW at 13 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 948 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
 
Issued at 200 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 190535
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
200 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020
 
...MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 57.7W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 57.7 West.  Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the day or so, followed by a turn toward
the north late Sunday.  On the forecast track, Teddy will approach
Bermuda on Sunday and move near or east of the island late Sunday
and early Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
through Saturday, with a weakening trend forecast to begin on
Sunday.
 
Teddy is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and
the nearby waters by Sunday afternoon. These conditions may linger
throughout most of the day Monday.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells
from Teddy will begin affecting most of the east coast of the United
States later today and will reach Atlantic Canada by early Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 190256
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202020
0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N  57.4W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT.......110NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 270SE 300SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N  57.4W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N  57.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.5N  58.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.3N  60.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.0N  61.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 130SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.8N  62.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 140SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.5N  61.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 150SW 220NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.7N  61.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW 120NW.
34 KT...310NE 230SE 220SW 290NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 45.5N  62.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 50.5N  56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N  57.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 190259
TCDAT5
 
Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

Teddy continues to have an impressive appearance on satellite 
images with a fairly symmetrical Central Dense Overcast, although 
recent images show some warming of the cloud tops over the 
southeastern part of the circulation.  Upper-level outflow is 
well-defined over the northern semicircle of the hurricane and 
not as strong to the south.  Earlier microwave images showed a 
concentric eyewall structure and it appears that the hurricane has 
re-intensified slightly over the past several hours.  The current 
intensity estimate is set at 115 kt which is a blend of subjective 
and objective Dvorak estimates.  Some additional fluctuations in 
strength as a result of eyewall replacements could occur through 
Saturday.  On Sunday and beyond, a less conducive oceanic and 
atmospheric environment should lead to slow weakening.  However, 
Teddy should remain a powerful hurricane for the next several days. 
The numerical guidance shows that the circulation will become even 
larger during the forecast period due to Teddy combined with a 
high pressure area coming behind a cold front over the eastern 
United States.  Teddy is expected to make the transition to an 
extratropical cyclone when  it moves into Atlantic Canada.   

The hurricane continues its northwestward trek and is moving around 
325/11 kt.  Teddy should move around the western side of a 
subtropical high pressure system for the next day or so.  Then, the 
cyclone should turn northward with an increase in forward speed as 
it approaches a strong mid-latitude trough cutting off into a low 
as it moves off the northeast U.S. coast in 2-3 days.  The track 
of the system could bend a bit the left as it interacts with the 
trough/low while approaching Nova Scotia.  Around the end of the 
forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone should turn 
northeastward as it moves along the eastern side of a mid-level 
trough.  The official track forecast is close to the corrected model 
consensus.

Teddy is producing seas to 48 feet and an extensive area of large 
waves and swells which are impacting much of the western Atlantic 
basin.  See the Key Messages below.


Key Messages:
 
1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda
late Sunday or Monday, there is still a risk of strong winds, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall on the island, and a Tropical Storm Watch
is in effect.
 
2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast through the
weekend.
 
3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0300Z 24.0N  57.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 25.5N  58.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 27.3N  60.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 29.0N  61.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 30.8N  62.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  21/1200Z 33.5N  61.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 37.7N  61.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  23/0000Z 45.5N  62.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  24/0000Z 50.5N  56.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020                                              

000
FONT15 KNHC 190257
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202020               
0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  18(35)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)  23(47)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)
BURGEO NFLD    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  33(33)  24(57)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  17(27)
PTX BASQUES    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  49(49)  14(63)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)  10(32)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  50(50)  16(66)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)  12(31)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  59(62)   4(66)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  26(27)   3(30)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   2(15)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  61(62)   5(67)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  32(32)   5(37)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   3(18)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  33(33)   2(35)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   1(14)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  33(33)   7(40)
MONCTON NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   5(17)
MONCTON NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  25(25)   6(31)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   2(12)
ST JOHN NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)   2(24)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)
EASTPORT ME    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   1(12)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)  10(10)  27(37)  12(49)   X(49)   X(49)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   X(13)   X(13)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    


regen hurrikan
That's how it starts:
the first raindrops are already there

Hurricanes are tropical cyclones. Danger arises through very high wind speeds, waves and heavy rainfalls. In Cuba a common word for a hurricane is 'ciclon'. Season is from May through November. Traditionally, through its well organized system of civil protection Cuba is better prepared for hurricanes then the USA or other countries of the Caribbean. Cuba suffers less loss of human life. Is is not safe from substantial material damages though.




Are you there? Something happens?

Report it on HolaCuba right here:



foto hurrikan kuba

Right: typical photo of a hurricane

Thank you for the picture, Andrew
(was our guest in Varadero)




We are frequently asked: How are we supposed to behave as a tourist when we get surprised on the island?

Two simple rules:
1. Stay home.
2. Follow the orders of the Civil Protection authorities.

All our Casas have a solid construction base, none is made of wood.




Hurricane damages

hurrikan schäden
After the ciclon:
Construction materials are paramount

Oficially a hurricane starts when wind speed exceeds 118 Km/hour. But even at 50 Km persons are adviced to seek protection.

Aus der Schweiz könen Sie Ihre Hilfe für die Opfer direkt an Cuba-Si Schweiz leisten.

More about hurricanes in Wikipedia

(This page is searched for and found in the web as 'hurrican cuba' but also as 'hurricane kuba'.)


Historic Tropical Storms / Hurricane names in 2011: Bret Irene Ophelia Katia

In 2010: Agatha Earl

In 2009: Ana, Hurricane Bill, Claudette, Danny, Fred, Ida

Hurricane or not - don't travel alone. Try Taxi Share!

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