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Palma Real von Kuba

Hurricane (ciclon)
2013 Names: Chantal

 

WARNINGS


Disclaimer: External data. HolaCuba assumes no liability.

Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2016 13:16:21 GMT
Quelle: NHC Atlantic
Mehr Info und aktuelle Karten



Hurricane GASTON 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image 
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 08:51:34 GMT
  
Hurricane GASTON 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities  
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 09:07:40 GMT



Tropical Depression EIGHT 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image 
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 08:55:24 GMT
  
Tropical Depression EIGHT 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities  
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 09:08:15 GMT



Tropical Depression NINE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image 
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 11:46:22 GMT
  
Tropical Depression NINE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities  
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 09:08:51 GMT


 
000 
ABNT20 KNHC 311118 
TWOAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
800 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 
 
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 
 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Gaston, located well east of Bermuda, on Tropical Depression Eight, 
located east of North Carolina, and on Tropical Depression Nine, 
located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. 
 
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is 
located over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands. 
This wave is in an environment of very dry air, which should prevent 
any significant development for a few days.  Some development is 
possible over the weekend when the wave nears the Lesser Antilles. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent 
 
$$ 
Forecaster Blake 
 

  ...GASTON OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH 120 MPH WINDS...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Aug 31
 the center of GASTON was located near 33.4, -50.2
 with movement NE at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 956 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
 
Issued at 500 AM AST WED AUG 31 2016  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 310850
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
500 AM AST WED AUG 31 2016

...GASTON OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH 120 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 50.2W
ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1335 MI...2150 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Gaston.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the well-defined eye of Hurricane
Gaston was located near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 50.2 West.
Gaston is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h).  An
east-northeastward or northeastward motion with an increase in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gaston is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Little change in strength is expected today,
but weakening should begin tonight or early Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 31 2016  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 310850
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
0900 UTC WED AUG 31 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GASTON.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N  50.2W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  956 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE 120SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N  50.2W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N  50.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 34.5N  48.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 120SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 36.3N  44.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 120SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 37.5N  40.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 38.5N  35.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 39.5N  28.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 130SE 100SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 41.5N  22.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N  50.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 

Issued at 500 AM AST WED AUG 31 2016  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 310851
TCDAT2

HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
500 AM AST WED AUG 31 2016

Gaston's satellite presentation continues to be outstanding. It
consists of a large and clear eye surrounded by rings of very deep
convection. Dvorak intensity estimates have remained steady and
still support and initial intensity of 105 kt.

Gaston is over warm waters and the shear is expected to increase
just a little during the next day or two. Consequently, only a
slight weakening is anticipated during the the day or so. After
that time, Gaston should encounter cooler waters resulting in a
faster weakening. By the end of the forecast period, Gaston should
become absorbed by another extratropical cyclone.  The NHC intensity
forecast is very similar to the previous one.

The initial motion is 050/8 kt.  Gaston is already embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies, and this pattern should steer the hurricane
toward the northeast and east-northeast with a gradual increase in
forward speed. By day 3, the cyclone should reduce its forward
speed once it begins to interact with a separate extratropical
cyclone. No significant adjustments were made to the previous NHC
track forecast and it continues to be close to the multi-model
consensus TVCN. Gaston continues to move in the direction of the
Azores, and all interests in these islands should monitor the
progress of this cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0900Z 33.4N  50.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 34.5N  48.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 36.3N  44.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 37.5N  40.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 38.5N  35.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 39.5N  28.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 41.5N  22.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila


Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 31 2016                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 310851
PWSAT2
                                                                    
HURRICANE GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  35                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016               
0900 UTC WED AUG 31 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  34(52)   1(53)   X(53)
SANTA CRUZ AZO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)   X(18)   X(18)
SANTA CRUZ AZO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PONTA DELGADA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   5(20)   X(20)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    

  ...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
 As of 5:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 31
 the center of EIGHT was located near 34.8, -74.3
 with movement NE at 5 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
 
Issued at 500 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 310853
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
500 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 74.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 74.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h).
This general motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast
during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is still possible and the depression could become
a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 31 2016  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 310852
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
0900 UTC WED AUG 31 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N  74.3W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N  74.3W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N  74.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 35.7N  72.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 37.7N  69.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  50SE  40SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 40.0N  63.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  80SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 42.5N  57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE  70SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N  74.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 

Issued at 500 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 310854
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
500 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

The low-level center is difficult to find, but given the strong
westerly shear and continuity, it is assumed that it is located to
the west of a large area of deep convection devoid of banding
features. Dvorak numbers have not changed, and the initial intensity
remains at 30 kt. Most of the guidance shows a significant increase
in the shear, but at the same time forecasts a slight increase in
intensity. The NHC forecast follows the guidance and the previous
forecast showing a slight increase in the winds before the cyclone
becomes extratropical in 48 hours.

The depression is moving slowly toward the northeast at 4 kt, and
is already embedded within the southwesterly flow ahead of an
amplifying mid-latitude trough. This pattern favors a continuation
of the northeast track away from the U.S coast with a significant
increase in forward speed.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0900Z 34.8N  74.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 35.7N  72.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 37.7N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 40.0N  63.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 42.5N  57.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila


Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 31 2016                                              

000
FONT13 KNHC 310853
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016               
0900 UTC WED AUG 31 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    

Issued at  901 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016
  ...DEPRESSION HEADED TOWARD FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN...
 As of 7:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 31
 the center of NINE was located near 24.6, -88.1
 with movement N at 2 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
 
Issued at 700 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 311145
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
700 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

...DEPRESSION HEADED TOWARD FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 88.1W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to the Walton/Bay County line

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions
are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the United States east coast from northern Florida
through the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 88.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h).  A
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected to
begin later today, and a turn toward the northeast is forecast
tonight.  On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone
will approach the northwest Florida coast in the warning area on
Thursday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and
could be near hurricane strength by the time landfall occurs.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Thursday afternoon.  Hurricane
conditions are possible over portions of the hurricane watch area
beginning Thursday afternoon.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a
possibility of life-threatening inundation within the next 48 hours
along the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass.  For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic.  Persons located
within these areas should be prepared to take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water.  Promptly follow
any instructions from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 feet
Ochlockonee River to Chassahowitzka...3 to 5 feet
Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet.
Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 2 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017.  This prototype graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over western Cuba through
today, with maximum storm total amounts up to 20 inches.  These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible over
portions of central and northern Florida through Friday, with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible.  Coastal areas of
Georgia and the Carolinas are expected to receive storm total
rainfall of 4 to 7 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches
possible through Saturday morning.  These rains may cause flooding
and flash flooding.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight into
Thursday morning mainly across central Florida.  A few tornadoes are
possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night over north Florida
and southeast Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 31 2016  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 310851
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
0900 UTC WED AUG 31 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  88.1W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  88.1W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N  88.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.4N  87.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.9N  86.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.4N  85.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 30.3N  83.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.2N  76.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 37.0N  70.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 39.0N  68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N  88.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



Issued at 400 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 310852
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
400 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

Although clusters of deep convection continue to pulsate near
and to the southeast of the center of the tropical cyclone, there
has been little overall change in organization overnight.  A couple
of ASCAT passes since the previous advisory revealed peak winds of
30 kt, so the system remains a 30-kt tropical depression for this
advisory.  The upper-level outflow has expanded to the northwest
and north of the cyclone, which suggests that the upper-level wind
pattern is becoming more favorable for strengthening.  The SHIPS
model indicates that the shear should remain low during the next day
or so, while the cyclone moves over warm water.  This should allow
for strengthening, and the NHC forecast calls for steady
intensification during the next day or so, which is also supported
by the global models.  The updated intensity forecast is in good
agreement with the multi-model consensus.

The depresssion has been meandering overnight, but is expected to
begin a northward or northeastward motion later today.  A deepening
trough over the southeastern United States should cause the
tropical cyclone to accelerate north-northeastward or northeastward
by tonight.  Although the track guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario, the model envelope has shifted slightly westward this
cycle, and the NHC forecast track has been nudged in that
direction.

The new forecast has required the issuance of a Tropical Storm
Warning for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast.  The Hurricane
Watch remains in effect since there is still a possibility that
the system could become a hurricane before landfall. It is important
not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this system.  Among
other reasons, dangerous storm surge flooding is likely along the
coast well to the east and south of the path of the center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0900Z 24.5N  88.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 25.4N  87.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 26.9N  86.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 28.4N  85.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 30.3N  83.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 72H  03/0600Z 34.2N  76.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  04/0600Z 37.0N  70.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 39.0N  68.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown


Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 31 2016                                              

000
FONT14 KNHC 310852
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016               
0900 UTC WED AUG 31 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
WORCESTER MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)
 
ALBANY NY      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
POUGHKEEPSIE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   3(11)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   2(14)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   2(16)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   2(17)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  10(17)   1(18)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  11(18)   1(19)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  12(20)   1(21)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  14(25)   1(26)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)
ELIZABETH CTY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   5(15)   1(16)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)  19(40)   1(41)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   7(14)   X(14)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   3(16)   X(16)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)   9(32)   2(34)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
CHERRY PT NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)  13(39)   1(40)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)   X(13)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  27(27)  10(37)   1(38)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   1(12)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  25(25)   7(32)   1(33)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
SURF CITY NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)   5(31)   1(32)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  30(31)   5(36)   1(37)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
BALD HEAD ISL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   1(18)   X(18)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  27(28)   3(31)   X(31)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
LITTLE RIVER   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  27(29)   2(31)   1(32)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  30(33)   1(34)   1(35)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
GEORGETOWN SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  30(35)   1(36)   X(36)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  29(39)   X(39)   X(39)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)
BEAUFORT MCAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  10(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  28(44)   X(44)   X(44)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   X(12)   X(12)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  27(31)  21(52)   X(52)   1(53)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  13(18)   X(18)   X(18)
KINGS BAY GA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  32(36)  16(52)   1(53)   X(53)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)   X(16)   X(16)
WAYCROSS GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  26(30)  21(51)   1(52)   X(52)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   X(16)   X(16)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  31(35)  18(53)   X(53)   1(54)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)   X(18)   X(18)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  35(45)   7(52)   X(52)   X(52)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   4(15)   X(15)   X(15)
GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  20(25)   8(33)   X(33)   X(33)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  25(35)   3(38)   X(38)   1(39)
THE VILLAGES   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
THE VILLAGES   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  14(21)   4(25)   X(25)   X(25)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   5(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   5(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NAPLES FL      34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   5(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   2( 2)  12(14)   6(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   2( 2)  15(17)  14(31)   2(33)   X(33)   X(33)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   2( 2)  18(20)  32(52)   4(56)   X(56)   X(56)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   1( 1)  15(16)  36(52)   3(55)   X(55)   X(55)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   2( 2)  19(21)  35(56)   4(60)   X(60)   X(60)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)
ST MARKS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   2( 2)  36(38)  22(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   7( 7)  15(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   5( 5)  48(53)  16(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)  15(15)  14(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   2( 2)  27(29)  19(48)   X(48)   1(49)   X(49)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   1( 1)   9(10)   6(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   1( 1)   9(10)   6(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   7( 7)  29(36)   3(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   5( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    



Tropical Depression NINE Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image 
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 09:37:41 GMT



Tropical Depression NINE Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map 
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 13:16:02 GMT

Issued at  534 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016
Issued at  632 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016


regen hurrikan
That's how it starts:
the first raindrops are already there

Hurricanes are tropical cyclones. Danger arises through very high wind speeds, waves and heavy rainfalls. In Cuba a common word for a hurricane is 'ciclon'. Season is from May through November. Traditionally, through its well organized system of civil protection Cuba is better prepared for hurricanes then the USA or other countries of the Caribbean. Cuba suffers less loss of human life. Is is not safe from substantial material damages though.




Are you there? Something happens?

Report it on HolaCuba right here:



foto hurrikan kuba

Right: typical photo of a hurricane

Thank you for the picture, Andrew
(was our guest in Varadero)




We are frequently asked: How are we supposed to behave as a tourist when we get surprised on the island?

Two simple rules:
1. Stay home.
2. Follow the orders of the Civil Protection authorities.

All our Casas have a solid construction base, none is made of wood.




Hurricane damages

hurrikan schäden
After the ciclon:
Construction materials are paramount

Oficially a hurricane starts when wind speed exceeds 118 Km/hour. But even at 50 Km persons are adviced to seek protection.

Aus der Schweiz könen Sie Ihre Hilfe für die Opfer direkt an Cuba-Si Schweiz leisten.

More about hurricanes in Wikipedia

(This page is searched for and found in the web as 'hurrican cuba' but also as 'hurricane kuba'.)


Historic Tropical Storms / Hurricane names in 2011: Bret Irene Ophelia Katia

In 2010: Agatha Earl

In 2009: Ana, Hurricane Bill, Claudette, Danny, Fred, Ida







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