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Date:
Sat, 19 Sep 2020 08:34:20 GMT
Quelle: NHC Atlantic
Mehr Info und aktuelle Karten
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 05:33:40 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 03:33:46 GMT
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 04:11:40 GMT
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 02:58:56 GMT
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 08:33:40 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 08:33:40 GMT
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 02:37:45 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 03:48:58 GMT
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 05:35:59 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 03:23:26 GMT
000
ABNT20 KNHC 190510
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Beta, located over the western Gulf of Mexico, on Hurricane
Teddy, located over the central Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm
Wilfred, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. The National
Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Alpha, which
became post-tropical over northern Portugal.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is moving southward and is now
located just south of the western Azores. The cyclone is forecast to
continue southward for the next day or two and then stall over
marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south of the Azores. The
cyclone could subsequently develop tropical or subtropical
characteristics by early next week while it moves little. For more
information about marine hazards associated with this system, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
A tropical wave is located near the west coast of Africa and will
move westward over the far eastern Atlantic during the next few
days. Development of this system, if any, will be slow to occur
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Wilfred are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Wilfred are issued
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
...BETA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
As of 1:00 AM CDT Sat Sep 19
the center of Beta was located near 25.8, -92.2
with movement NNE at 12 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 996 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020
000
WTNT32 KNHC 190533
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
100 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020
...BETA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 92.2W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield, TX to High Island, TX including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda
Bay, and Galveston Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* East of High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 92.2 West. Beta is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slow
westward motion is expected to begin late today. A slow
northwestward motion is forecast to begin late Sunday and continue
through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will
slowly approach the Texas coast early next week.
Maximum sustained are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Beta is expected to become a
hurricane on Sunday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Port Mansfield, TX to High Island, TX including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda
Bay, and Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield, TX...1-3 ft
High Island, TX to Morgan City, LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu
Lake, and Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Monday or Monday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area along the upper Texas and
southwestern Louisiana coast as early as tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
along the south Texas coast late Sunday.
RAINFALL: There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and
flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the
middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and
along or offshore of the coast through that time. For additional
information, see products from your local National Weather Service
office.
SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas
and the Gulf Coast of Mexico later today, generated by a
combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of
Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
000
WTNT22 KNHC 190257
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020
0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT MANSFIELD...TX TO
HIGH ISLAND...TX INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY...CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...COPANO
BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON
BAY.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT ARANSAS...TX TO HIGH
ISLAND...TX.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS
TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE AND EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TO MORGAN
CITY LA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT MANSFIELD...TX TO HIGH ISLAND...TX INCLUDING BAFFIN
BAY...CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO
BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON BAY
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 92.3W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 92.3W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 92.4W
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.3N 92.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 26.8N 92.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.8N 93.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.0N 94.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.4N 95.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 27.8N 96.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 28.4N 95.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.4N 94.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 92.3W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
000
WTNT42 KNHC 190258
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Beta
this evening found that the center has re-formed or been tugged
northeastward by bursts of strong convection. While flying through
that convection, the plane measured a peak flight-level wind of 57
kt at 10,000 feet before descending to 2500 feet. To the northwest
of the center, the SFMR instrument on the plane measured a solid
area of 46-48 kt, and there have been multiple ship reports in the
region of 40-45 kt. Based on all these data, Beta's initial
intensity is estimated to be 50 kt. The plane reported an
extrapolated minimum pressure of 996 mb on the last pass through
the center, which also corresponds to a typical 50-kt tropical
storm.
The aircraft fixes indicate that Beta is moving north-northeastward,
or 030/10 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next 12
hours or so, but as mid-level ridging develops over the Southern
Plains on Saturday, Beta should begin to slow down and turn
westward. A slow motion in the direction of the Texas coast should
continue through day 3, with a shortwave trough possibly causing the
cyclone to recurve and move northeastward near or along the Texas
coast on days 4 and 5. While there remains a large amount of spread
among the track models, they all agree on this general scenario and
indicate that Beta is likely to move very slowly as it makes its
closest approach to the Texas coast. The initial position fixed by
the plane necessitated a northward shift in the NHC official
forecast compared to the previous forecast for the first 3 days, but
it comes back in line with the previous prediction on days 4 and 5.
Beta has been able to strengthen despite being affected by strong
southwesterly shear. The shear could begin to relax over the next
few days, particularly by day 2 and 3, which could allow for some
further strengthening. The SHIPS guidance remains the most
aggressive of the intensity models, and the NHC intensity forecast
leans heavily toward those solutions given Beta's recent
intensification trend (which SHIPS seemed to handle better). Beta
is forecast to steadily strengthen and become a hurricane in a
couple of days as it approaches the Texas coast. Some weakening is
forecast on days 4 and 5 due to another increase in southwesterly
shear and possible land interaction.
Key Messages:
1. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along
the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next
week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore
of the coast through that time. For additional information, see
products from your local National Weather Service office.
2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are
possible along portions of the Texas coast early next week, with
tropical storm conditions possible by late this weekend. Storm Surge
and Hurricane watches are in effect, and residents in these areas
should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow
advice given by local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 25.5N 92.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 26.3N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 26.8N 92.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 26.8N 93.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 27.0N 94.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 27.4N 95.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 27.8N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 28.4N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 29.4N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
000
FONT12 KNHC 190258
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020
0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5)
STENNIS MS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7)
BURAS LA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 3(10)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 9 6(15) 3(18) 2(20) 1(21) 1(22) 3(25)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 4(12)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 49 15(64) 4(68) 2(70) 2(72) X(72) 2(74)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 2(10)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 5(15)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) 2(14) 4(18)
ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 4(13)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) 2(14) 6(20)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 3(15) 5(20)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 35 40(75) 11(86) 2(88) 2(90) X(90) 1(91)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 2 30(32) 13(45) 3(48) 1(49) 2(51) 1(52)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) 2(13)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6)
FORT POLK LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 5(17)
LAKE CHARLES 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 6(16) 4(20) 6(26)
LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3)
CAMERON LA 34 3 15(18) 12(30) 7(37) 7(44) 4(48) 6(54)
CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 4(11)
CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3)
JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 4(16) 4(20)
KOUNTZE TX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 9(18) 5(23) 4(27)
KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 8(20) 6(26) 5(31)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5)
GALVESTON TX 34 1 15(16) 16(32) 15(47) 12(59) 4(63) 3(66)
GALVESTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) 4(19) 3(22)
GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6)
HOUSTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 15(27) 7(34) 4(38)
HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8)
HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 6(18) 3(21)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 7(19) 2(21)
FREEPORT TX 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 14(26) 17(43) 5(48) 4(52)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 3(15) 1(16)
FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 25(28) 29(57) 17(74) 8(82) 2(84) 1(85)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 3( 3) 16(19) 19(38) 11(49) 2(51) 1(52)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 7(20) 1(21) 1(22)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 8(17) 11(28) 6(34) 4(38)
HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8)
HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MATAGORDA TX 34 1 9(10) 20(30) 19(49) 16(65) 5(70) 2(72)
MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 17(28) 4(32) 2(34)
MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) 1(12)
PORT O CONNOR 34 1 7( 8) 19(27) 19(46) 19(65) 5(70) 2(72)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 18(30) 5(35) 2(37)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 1(13)
ROCKPORT TX 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 12(19) 23(42) 10(52) 2(54)
ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 5(19) 1(20)
ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 19(33) 11(44) 2(46)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) 1(17)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 10(11) 27(38) 22(60) 14(74) 6(80) X(80)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) 14(40) 5(45) 2(47)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 3(20) 1(21)
MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 9(22) 2(24)
MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 11(18) 10(28) 2(30)
HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
HARLINGEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 10(18) 10(28) 1(29)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 1 4( 5) 11(16) 9(25) 12(37) 9(46) 1(47)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
KEESLER AB 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 3(10)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
...WOEFUL WILFRED HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 19
the center of Wilfred was located near 13.1, -36.9
with movement WNW at 17 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020
000
WTNT33 KNHC 190831
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wilfred Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020
...WOEFUL WILFRED HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 36.9W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 36.9 West. Wilfred is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Small fluctuations in intensity are possible over the weekend. A
general weakening trend should begin by late Sunday and Wilfred is
forecast to become a remnant low in a few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
000
WTNT23 KNHC 190831
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020
0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 36.9W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 90SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 36.9W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 36.2W
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.8N 39.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.8N 41.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.8N 44.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.5N 46.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.8N 48.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 36.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020
000
WTNT43 KNHC 190832
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020
Helpful AMSR microwave imagery from near 4Z revealed that Wilfred
consists of a small low embedded within a broader elongated
area of low pressure. A skinny, ragged band of convection wraps
around the western and southern portions of the tropical storm, but
Wilfred is only producing a small amount of convection near its
center. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are
generally near 35 kt, and the intensity is held at that value.
No noteworthy changes were made to the NHC track or intensity
forecasts. Wilfred should continue to move generally
west-northwestward for the next few days, steered by a
subtropical ridge to the north. Small fluctuations in intensity are
possible for the next day or two, but Wilfred should be on the
overall decline by the end of the weekend due to increasing wind
shear and an expected influx of dry, stable air. The dynamical
guidance consensus is that Wilfred will open into a trough and
dissipate in about 72 h, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast.
Both the NHC track and intensity forecasts are based on the
multi-model consensus throughout the forecast period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 13.1N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 13.8N 39.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 14.8N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 15.8N 44.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 16.5N 46.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 16.8N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
000
FONT13 KNHC 190831
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020
0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
...SHORT-LIVED ALPHA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW OVER THE DISTRICT OF VISEU PORTUGAL.. ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
As of 3:00 AM GMT Sat Sep 19
the center of Alpha was located near 40.9, -6.9
with movement NE at 16 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020
000
WTNT34 KNHC 190235
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL242020
300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020
...SHORT-LIVED ALPHA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW OVER THE DISTRICT OF
VISEU PORTUGAL..
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.9N 6.9W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM ENE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Portugal should monitor the progress of Alpha.
Additional information on this system can be found in products from
the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha
was located near latitude 40.9 North, longitude 6.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the
next 12 hours or so. Alpha should move across northern Portugal and
Spain before dissipating later today.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by
Saturday night.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...Information on wind hazards from Alpha can be found in
products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at
www.ipma.pt.
RAINFALL...Alpha is expected to produce storm totals of 1 to 2
inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts of 3 inches over the
northern portion of Portugal and into west-central Spain before rain
tapers off later today.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
000
WTNT24 KNHC 190235
TCMAT4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242020
0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN PORTUGAL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALPHA.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS FROM
THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR SEA AND ATMOSPHERE AT WWW.IPMA.PT.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 6.9W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 6.9W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 7.7W
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 42.6N 4.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.9N 6.9W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020
000
WTNT44 KNHC 190236
TCDAT4
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL242020
300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020
METEOSAT imagery, IPMA radar data, and surface observations
indicate that Alpha has degenerated to a post-tropical remnant low
just a few miles to the southeast of Viseu, Portugal. Therefore,
this the last NHC advisory. Surface wind data support an initial
intensity of 25 kt. The rapidly deteriorating small remnant low is
expected to move generally toward the northeast at about 14 kt for
the next 6 to 12 hours before dissipating over northern Spain by
Saturday night. The NHC forecast track is basically an update of
the previous advisory and lies between the tightly clustered
deterministic guidance.
Additional information on the hazards from this system can be found
in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at
www.ipma.pt.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 40.9N 6.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 19/1200Z 42.6N 4.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
000
FONT14 KNHC 190235
PWSAT4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALPHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242020
0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 40.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 6.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
...MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...
As of 2:00 AM AST Sat Sep 19
the center of Teddy was located near 24.4, -57.7
with movement NW at 13 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 948 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Issued at 200 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020
000
WTNT35 KNHC 190535
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
200 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020
...MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 57.7W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 57.7 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the day or so, followed by a turn toward
the north late Sunday. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach
Bermuda on Sunday and move near or east of the island late Sunday
and early Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
through Saturday, with a weakening trend forecast to begin on
Sunday.
Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and
the nearby waters by Sunday afternoon. These conditions may linger
throughout most of the day Monday.
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells
from Teddy will begin affecting most of the east coast of the United
States later today and will reach Atlantic Canada by early Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
000
WTNT25 KNHC 190256
TCMAT5
HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 57.4W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 270SE 300SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 57.4W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 57.0W
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.5N 58.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.0N 61.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 130SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.8N 62.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 140SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.5N 61.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 150SW 220NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.7N 61.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.
34 KT...310NE 230SE 220SW 290NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 45.5N 62.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 50.5N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 57.4W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020
000
WTNT45 KNHC 190259
TCDAT5
Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020
Teddy continues to have an impressive appearance on satellite
images with a fairly symmetrical Central Dense Overcast, although
recent images show some warming of the cloud tops over the
southeastern part of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is
well-defined over the northern semicircle of the hurricane and
not as strong to the south. Earlier microwave images showed a
concentric eyewall structure and it appears that the hurricane has
re-intensified slightly over the past several hours. The current
intensity estimate is set at 115 kt which is a blend of subjective
and objective Dvorak estimates. Some additional fluctuations in
strength as a result of eyewall replacements could occur through
Saturday. On Sunday and beyond, a less conducive oceanic and
atmospheric environment should lead to slow weakening. However,
Teddy should remain a powerful hurricane for the next several days.
The numerical guidance shows that the circulation will become even
larger during the forecast period due to Teddy combined with a
high pressure area coming behind a cold front over the eastern
United States. Teddy is expected to make the transition to an
extratropical cyclone when it moves into Atlantic Canada.
The hurricane continues its northwestward trek and is moving around
325/11 kt. Teddy should move around the western side of a
subtropical high pressure system for the next day or so. Then, the
cyclone should turn northward with an increase in forward speed as
it approaches a strong mid-latitude trough cutting off into a low
as it moves off the northeast U.S. coast in 2-3 days. The track
of the system could bend a bit the left as it interacts with the
trough/low while approaching Nova Scotia. Around the end of the
forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone should turn
northeastward as it moves along the eastern side of a mid-level
trough. The official track forecast is close to the corrected model
consensus.
Teddy is producing seas to 48 feet and an extensive area of large
waves and swells which are impacting much of the western Atlantic
basin. See the Key Messages below.
Key Messages:
1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda
late Sunday or Monday, there is still a risk of strong winds, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall on the island, and a Tropical Storm Watch
is in effect.
2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast through the
weekend.
3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 24.0N 57.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 25.5N 58.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 29.0N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 30.8N 62.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 33.5N 61.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 37.7N 61.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 45.5N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/0000Z 50.5N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
000
FONT15 KNHC 190257
PWSAT5
HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 18(35)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 23(47)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17)
BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 24(57)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27)
PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 49(49) 14(63)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 10(32)
EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 16(66)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 12(31)
SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 59(62) 4(66)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 3(30)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 61(62) 5(67)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 5(37)
HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 2(35)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 7(40)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17)
MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 6(31)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12)
ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 2(24)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8)
EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 10(10) 27(37) 12(49) X(49) X(49)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
That's how it starts:
the first raindrops are already there
Hurricanes are tropical cyclones. Danger arises through very high wind speeds,
waves and heavy rainfalls. In Cuba a common word for a hurricane is 'ciclon'. Season is
from May through November. Traditionally, through its well organized system of civil protection Cuba
is better prepared for hurricanes then the USA or other countries of the Caribbean. Cuba suffers less
loss of human life. Is is not safe from substantial material damages though.
Are you there? Something happens?
Report it on HolaCuba right here:
Right: typical photo of a hurricane
Thank you for the picture, Andrew
(was our guest in
Varadero)
We are frequently asked: How are we supposed to behave as a tourist
when we get surprised on the island?
Two simple rules:
1. Stay home.
2. Follow the orders of the Civil Protection authorities.
All our Casas have a solid construction base, none is made of wood.
Hurricane damages
After the ciclon:
Construction materials are paramount
Oficially a hurricane starts when wind speed exceeds 118 Km/hour. But even at 50 Km persons are adviced to seek protection.
Aus der Schweiz könen Sie Ihre Hilfe für die Opfer direkt an
Cuba-Si Schweiz
leisten.
More about hurricanes in Wikipedia
(This page is searched for and found in the web
as 'hurrican cuba' but also as 'hurricane kuba'.)
Historic Tropical Storms / Hurricane names in 2011: Bret Irene Ophelia Katia
In 2010: Agatha Earl
In 2009: Ana, Hurricane Bill, Claudette, Danny, Fred, Ida
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