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000 ABNT20 KNHC 172316 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gabrielle, located in the central Tropical Atlantic. East-Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands continues producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central portion of the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of development, this system will continue to bring areas of heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands through Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of west Africa by Friday morning. Some slow development of this system is possible as it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic this weekend into early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gabrielle are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gabrielle are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...POORLY ORGANIZED GABRIELLE BATTLING STRONG WIND SHEAR AS IT JOGS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 17 the center of Gabrielle was located near 19.5, -49.5 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 17 2025

000
WTNT32 KNHC 180249
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072025
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 17 2025
 
...POORLY ORGANIZED GABRIELLE BATTLING STRONG WIND SHEAR AS IT JOGS
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 49.5W
ABOUT 895 MI...1435 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 49.5 West. Gabrielle
is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A 
motion between west-northwest and northwest is expected for the 
next few days.
 
Recent satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain 
near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength 
is forecast during the next 48 hours, but some gradual 
intensification is forecast over the weekend.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center, mostly to the north and northeast of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 18 2025

461 
WTNT22 KNHC 180248
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072025
0300 UTC THU SEP 18 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  49.5W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......210NE 180SE  30SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 240SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  49.5W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  49.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.3N  51.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.3N  52.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 110SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.2N  54.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.3N  56.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.5N  58.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  90SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 25.8N  60.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 28.9N  62.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  80NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 32.5N  62.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N  49.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 17 2025

000
WTNT42 KNHC 180252
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072025
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 17 2025

The overall structure of Gabrielle hasn't changed too much.  The 
cloud pattern of the cyclone consists of a large comma shape.  
GOES-19 CIRA proxy-vis imagery and a recent 17/2342 UTC ASCAT-B 
overpass clearly indicate that the surface wind center is at the 
bottom of the upper portion of the comma head.  The strongest ASCAT 
wind vectors are the same magnitudes as the pass from 12 hours 
prior, so the intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory.

Gabrielle still has a very large and broad envelope of convection 
and winds.  It is quite atypical to see a structure like this for a 
tropical cyclone in this part of the world.  Strong westerly shear 
should continue on Thursday, then gradually abate at some point on 
Friday.  The other factor that is detrimentally impacting Gabrielle 
is the very dry air seen on water vapor imagery in the open area of 
the comma, to the south and west of the center.  Even after the 
shear abates, Gabrielle will continue moving through an environment 
of dry air through Friday, with moistening along its path over the 
weekend.  The official intensity forecast has been decreased during 
the 24-48 h period, in agreement with most of the reliable intensity 
guidance.  The new NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the 
guidance envelope through 48 hours, then near the high end of the 
guidance thereafter, and still calls for Gabrielle to be a hurricane 
at days 4-5.

The center has jogged westward since the previous advisory, but the 
longer term motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/14 
kt.  A similar motion is expected for the next couple of days, 
followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest as Gabrielle 
moves on the south side of a subtropical ridge.  Over the weekend, 
the cyclone should round the southwestern periphery of the ridge and 
turn northwestward as it catches up to a slow-moving upper-level low 
that should be located just west of Gabrielle.  A northward motion 
is expected in 4-5 days as Gabrielle gets closer to the mid-latitude 
westerlies, which should induce a northeastward turn in about 5 
days.  The new NHC track forecast is shifted significantly to the 
left (southwest) of the previous forecast through 72 h but near the 
previous track again at days 4-5.  The forecast is in fairly good 
agreement with the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean through 72 h, then 
leans toward the HCCA Corrected Consensus at days 4-5.
 
Track forecast confidence remains relatively low.  This system 
should pass well east and north of the Leeward Islands, but 
interests in Bermuda should monitor forecasts during the next 
several days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0300Z 19.5N  49.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 20.3N  51.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 21.3N  52.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 22.2N  54.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 23.3N  56.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  20/1200Z 24.5N  58.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 25.8N  60.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  22/0000Z 28.9N  62.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 32.5N  62.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 18 2025

000
FONT12 KNHC 180249
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072025               
0300 UTC THU SEP 18 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  23(33)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN